Tuesday, 08 May 2018 04:10

NCAA Tournament Men's Facts & Figures

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We are just days away from the start of this year's NCAA Tournament with seven sites firing up on Friday while the other nine begin play on Saturday. 15 of the 16 host sites will have live scoring (USC has video with scores on it but no actual scoring page) and at least 9 will have streaming video - check my live scoring page to see who is doing what. The Power 5 conferences accounted for 36 (56%) of the 64 bids with the SEC putting 10 teams in, the ACC with 9, the Pac-12 with 7, the Big XII with all 6 of its teams, and the Big Ten with 4. The only other conferences to put multiple teams in were the Ivy League at 3 and the American at 2. 

UCLA will be appearing in the NCAA Tournament for the 42nd year in a row, which is every year since the team format was started in 1977, while it'll be the 35th year in a row for Georgia. I have a list down below of all the schools that have made it at least 10 years in a row and while most of the schools are familiar names there are a few that you might not expect. 

There are going to be some 4-3 matches this weekend and more times than not the team that claims the doubles point will win the match. Of the 64 teams competing in this year's tournament, Ohio State plays the best doubles with the Buckeyes winning the doubles point 87.1% of the time while TCU is second at 86.4%. There are three schools that made the field with a doubles percentage less than 50% with the worst being Lamar at just 28.6%. I have the full list down below. 

The team with the highest UTR Power 6 as of 5/8/18 is Texas A&M with the Aggies coming in at 84.7 which is an average of 14.1 per player. The second, third, and fourth highest are only separated by .1 with Wake Forest at 84.6, Ohio State at 84.5, and North Carolina at 84.4. These numbers will differ some from what you see on UTRs site because I used the actual lineups that the schools submitted whereas UTR has some players listed in the top 6 that won't play due to injury (Oklahoma State's Julian Cash, TCU's Alastair Gray, Virginia's Henrik Wiersholm, Oklahoma's Spencer Papa) or other reasons (Francisco Cerundolo left South Carolina, Santiago Plaza not showing on ETSU's roster). The only team where I made a change was Wake Forest who would have been No. 8 at 83.7 because the roster that Tony Bresky submitted has Eduardo Nava listed at 5 and Alan Gadjiev at 6. They might use that lineup against Navy but from there on out I'd expect to see Christian Seraphim at 5 and Rrezart Cungu at 6 which elevates the team's Power 6 to 84.6.  

For those filling out a bracket over at Slam.Tennis I'd recommend that you plan on having at least one top 16 seed get upset during the first two rounds. Since the field was expanded to 64 teams in 1999, there has yet to be a year where all the top 16 seeds survived the opening weekend and in fact in 17 of the 19 years more than one top 16 seed has been defeated. In the past I tracked who advanced to the Sweet 16 by seed within the bracket but since the NCAA changed its procedures this year there won't actually be 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3 matchups at each site. Having said that no team has defeated a top 16 seed in the first round and then won another match in the second round to make it the Sweet 16. The closest a team has come was Denver in 2013 when the Pioneers stunned Florida in the first round before falling to Cal in the second round.  

I took the master lineups that each of the teams submitted and put them into a spreadsheet to see who had the highest dual-match winning percentage per position. You can view them at this link (also includes them sorted by UTR) and down below I have the top five at each position. 

 

Weekend Schedule (Times ET):

Friday, May 11th, 2018:
Kentucky vs. Virginia Tech (@OhioSt) - 10 a.m.
Virginia vs. VCU (@Columbia) - 10 a.m.
Memphis vs. South Alabama (@MissSt) - 11 a.m. 
Baylor vs. Arizona State (@TexasA&M) - 11 a.m. 
Georgia vs. Minnesota (@Oklahoma) - 11 a.m.
Monmouth at #16 Columbia - 1 p.m. 
East Tennessee State at #3 Ohio State - 1 p.m. 
Tennessee Tech at #6 Mississippi State - 2 p.m.
Utah at #14 Oklahoma - 2 p.m.
Lamar at #5 Texas A&M - 2 p.m.  
NC State vs. Cal (@Texas) - 2 p.m. 
Tulane vs. Alabama (@FloridaSt) - 2 p.m. 
Bryant at #11 Texas - 5 p.m.
Alabama State at #12 Florida State - 5 p.m. 
 
Saturday, May 12th, 2018:
Tennessee vs. UNC Wilmington (@UNC) - 9 a.m.
Miami FL vs. North Florida - 10 a.m.
Notre Dame vs. Western Michigan (@Michigan) - 10 a.m.
Old Dominion vs. South Carolina (@Wake) - 11 a.m.
Dartmouth vs. Oregon (@TCU) - 11 a.m. 
Columbia Regional Final - 12 p.m. 
Campbell at #7 North Carolina - 12 p.m. 
Texas Tech vs. San Diego (@UCLA) - 12 p.m. 
South Carolina State at #13 Florida - 1 p.m. 
Cleveland State at #15 Michigan - 1 p.m. 
Duke vs. Ole Miss (@Stanford) - 1 p.m. 
Vanderbilt vs. Drake (@Illinois) - 1 p.m.
Oklahoma Regional Final - 1 p.m. 
Mississippi State Regional Final - 2 p.m. 
Navy at #1 Wake Forest - 2 p.m. 
Utah State at #9 TCU - 2 p.m.
Idaho at #2 UCLA - 3 p.m. 
Oklahoma State vs. Harvard (@USC) - 3 p.m. 
Marquette at #8 Illinois - 4 p.m.
Texas Regional Final - 4 p.m.
Florida State Regional Final - 4 p.m.
New Mexico State at #4 Stanford - 4 p.m. 
UC Santa Barbara at #10 USC - 6 p.m. 
 
Sunday, May 13th, 2018:
Michigan Regional Final - 12 p.m. 
Florida Regional Final - 1 p.m.
Wake Forest Regional Final - 2 p.m. 
TCU Regional Final - 2 p.m. 
North Carolina Regional Final - 2 p.m. 
Illinois Regional Final - 3 p.m. 
UCLA Regional Final - 4 p.m.
USC Regional Final - 4 p.m. 
Stanford Regional Final - 5 p.m.
 
 
Consecutive Years In NCAAs (1977-present)
 
School Years
UCLA 42
Georgia 35
Florida 28
Texas 27
Ole Miss 25
Illinois 23
Texas A&M 23
Baylor 21
Ohio State 19
California 19
Florida State 16
Virginia 15
East Tennessee State 12
USC 12
Stanford 11
Oklahoma 9

 

Doubles Dual-Match Records

Seed Team W L PCT
3 Ohio State 27 4 87.1%
9 TCU 19 3 86.4%
  Navy 30 7 81.1%
7 North Carolina 21 5 80.8%
10 USC 20 5 80.0%
4 Stanford 19 5 79.2%
  UC Santa Barbara 19 5 79.2%
2 UCLA 22 6 78.6%
6 Mississippi State 17 5 77.3%
  Baylor 22 7 75.9%
1 Wake Forest 20 7 74.1%
  UNC Wilmington 17 6 73.9%
  Alabama 22 8 73.3%
  Oregon 19 7 73.1%
  Western Michigan 19 7 73.1%
  South Carolina State  13 5 72.2%
  Dartmouth 18 7 72.0%
  Oklahoma State 20 8 71.4%
  East Tennessee St 16 7 69.6%
  Harvard 18 8 69.2%
  Texas Tech 20 9 69.0%
  New Mexico State 15 7 68.2%
15 Michigan 17 8 68.0%
  Tennessee 19 9 67.9%
16 Columbia 14 7 66.7%
  Virginia Tech 16 8 66.7%
  Idaho 14 7 66.7%
  Bryant 19 10 65.5%
  South Carolina 17 9 65.4%
11 Texas 15 8 65.2%
  Tennessee Tech 11 6 64.7%
5 Texas A&M 16 9 64.0%
13 Florida 16 9 64.0%
  Drake 20 12 62.5%
  Duke 18 11 62.1%
  Vanderbilt 16 10 61.5%
12 Florida State 19 12 61.3%
  Marquette 14 9 60.9%
  Minnesota 14 9 60.9%
  Memphis 14 9 60.9%
8 Illinois 17 11 60.7%
  VCU 15 10 60.0%
  Ole Miss 15 10 60.0%
  Cleveland State 16 11 59.3%
  Campbell 13 9 59.1%
14 Oklahoma 14 10 58.3%
  San Diego 14 10 58.3%
  Miami FL 15 11 57.7%
  Utah 16 12 57.1%
  Tulane 13 10 56.5%
  Georgia 13 10 56.5%
  South Alabama 13 10 56.5%
  Old Dominion 14 11 56.0%
  NC State 14 11 56.0%
  California 11 9 55.0%
  Monmouth 13 11 54.2%
  Alabama State 9 8 52.9%
  North Florida 11 10 52.4%
  Utah State 14 13 51.9%
  Notre Dame 16 15 51.6%
  Arizona State 12 12 50.0%
  Kentucky 11 14 44.0%
  Virginia 9 16 36.0%
  Lamar 6 15 28.6%

 

UTR Power 6 (as of 5/8/18)

Rank Team Power 6 Avg
1 Texas A&M 84.7 14.1
2 Wake Forest 84.6 14.1
3 Ohio State 84.5 14.1
4 North Carolina 84.4 14.1
5 Florida 84.1 14.0
6 Illinois 83.9 14.0
7 Stanford 83.8 14.0
8 UCLA 83.7 14.0
9 Southern California 83.6 13.9
10 TCU 83.5 13.9
11 Georgia 83.5 13.9
12 Mississippi State 83.5 13.9
13 Texas 82.9 13.8
14 Florida State 82.9 13.8
15 Michigan 82.7 13.8
16 Baylor 82.6 13.8
17 Tulane 82.6 13.8
18 Columbia 82.5 13.7
19 Duke 82.3 13.7
20 Arizona State 82.2 13.7
21 Cal 81.9 13.6
22 Oklahoma 81.9 13.6
23 Kentucky 81.8 13.6
24 Minnesota 81.8 13.6
25 Vanderbilt 81.7 13.6
26 Tennessee 81.5 13.6
27 Memphis 81.4 13.6
28 Notre Dame 81.2 13.5
29 UC Santa Barbara 81.2 13.5
30 Virginia 81.0 13.5
31 South Carolina 80.9 13.5
32 Oregon 80.9 13.5
33 Ole Miss 80.9 13.5
34 Alabama 80.8 13.5
35 Oklahoma State 80.8 13.5
36 Dartmouth 80.7 13.5
37 San Diego 80.7 13.5
38 NC State 80.7 13.4
39 Old Dominion 80.4 13.4
40 Harvard 80.0 13.3
41 Texas Tech 80.0 13.3
42 Virginia Tech 79.0 13.2
43 Miami FL 78.9 13.2
44 Utah 78.9 13.1
45 Drake 78.6 13.1
46 East Tennessee State 78.6 13.1
47 Utah State 78.2 13.0
48 VCU 78.2 13.0
49 Western Michigan 78.0 13.0
50 South Alabama 77.9 13.0
51 UNC Wilmington 77.2 12.9
52 North Florida 77.0 12.8
53 New Mexico State 75.5 12.6
54 Marquette 75.2 12.5
55 Cleveland State 75.0 12.5
56 Tennessee Tech 74.9 12.5
57 Monmouth 74.5 12.4
58 Lamar 74.3 12.4
59 Campbell 74.1 12.4
60 South Carolina St 74.1 12.3
61 Idaho 74.0 12.3
62 Bryant 73.9 12.3
63 Navy 73.0 12.2
64 Alabama State 70.5 11.8

 

Number of Top 16 seeds to lose before the Round of 16:
2017 (1) - Illinois def. #11 Oklahoma State 4-0
2016 (4) - Mississippi State def. #15 Illinois 4-0; Texas def. #12 Texas A&M 4-3; Stanford def. #14 Northwestern 4-3; SMU def. #8 Texas Tech 4-2
2015 (2) - Columbia def. #14 Ole Miss 4-1; South Florida def. #15 Virginia Tech 4-0
2014 (2) - Cal def. #8 Texas A&M 4-3, Tennessee def. #11 Duke 4-2
2013 (2) - Memphis def. #6 Ole Miss 4-2, Denver upset #15 Florida 4-3 (1st Round)
2012 (2) - Baylor def. #9 Mississippi State 4-3, Tulsa def. #10 Oklahoma 4-1
2011 (2) - #36 Tulsa def. #13 Texas 4-3, Illinois def. #16 North Carolina 4-1*
2010 (2) - Wisconsin def. #13 Illinois 4-1, Oklahoma def. #14 Texas Tech 4-2**
2009 (3) - Wake Forest def. #11 Kentucky 4-2, Boise St def. #14 Alabama 4-3, Miami def. #10 Florida 4-3
2008 (1) - Oklahoma State def. #11 Tulsa 4-3***
2007 (3) - Florida def. #16 Florida State 4-3, Alabama def. #14 Duke 4-3, NC State def. #6 UNC 4-0
2006 (3) - Notre Dame def. #16 Texas A&M 4-2, Washington def. #12 VCU 4-0, Florida def. #15 Oklahoma State 4-0
2005 (2) - Florida State def. #12 Kentucky 4-2, South Carolina def. #13 Oklahoma State 4-3
2004 (7) - Vanderbilt def. #8 Ole Miss 4-1, Texas A&M def. #13 VCU 4-0, TCU def. #12 Kentucky 4-2, Clemson def. #5 Duke 4-3, Arkansas def. #15 Tennessee 4-1, Rice def. #14 LSU 4-0, Ohio State def. #11 North Carolina 4-3
2003 (2) - Ohio State def. #13 Kentucky 4-3, Oklahoma State def. #11 Minnesota 4-2
2002 (2) - Washington def. #5 Stanford 4-3, Duke def. #10 California 4-3****
2001 (2) - Mississippi State def. #10 Illinois 4-2, USC def. #12 Ole Miss 4-3
2000 (3) - San Diego State def. #3 Pepperdine 4-2, VCU def. #14 Ole Miss 4-3, USC def. #13 Fresno State 4-1
1999 (3) - Virginia Tech def. #16 Alabama 4-3, Fresno State def. #12 USC 4-1, Mississippi State def. #11 Tennessee 4-3

* 2011 - Illinois was actually ranked #17 and UNC was ranked #18.
** 2010 - Oklahoma hosted regional even though Texas Tech was seeded
*** 2008 - Tulsa hosted NCAAs that year - didn't help attendance when they lost early
**** 2002 - Duke hosted regional even though Cal was seeded

No. 3 seeds to advance to Round of 16: Tulsa (2011), South Carolina (2005), Washington (2002), San Diego State (2000), Virginia Tech (1999)

No. 4 seeds to advance to Round of 16: None

 

Top Singles Dual-Match Winning Percentage by Slot (min 10 matches - all matches not necessarily played at that spot)

Pos. ITA Player School UTR W L %
1 36 Ryan Peniston Memphis 14.32 15 2 0.88
1 30 Alex Bakshi Oklahoma 14.17 14 2 0.88
1   Matt Kuhar Bryant 13.29 20 3 0.87
1   Kenny Tao Harvard 13.69 13 2 0.87
1 3 WIlliam Blumberg North Carolina 14.69 18 3 0.86
 
2 4 Petros Chrysochos Wake Forest 14.70 23 1 0.96
2   Loic Cloes South Alabama 13.54 20 1 0.95
2   Joseph Guillin UC Santa Barbara 14.01 19 2 0.90
2 42 Jan Zielinski Georgia 13.94 16 2 0.89
2 88 Andrew Watson Memphis 14.13 17 3 0.85
 
3 35 Lucas Poullain Florida State 14.11 22 1 0.96
3 56 Keegan Smith UCLA 14.23 21 2 0.91
3 92 John McNally Ohio State 14.11 18 2 0.90
3 48 Jordi Arconada Texas A&M 14.31 20 4 0.83
3   Santiago Sierra Utah 13.18 18 4 0.82
 
4   Bar Botzer Wake Forest 13.86 20 2 0.91
4   Jochen Bertsch Oklahoma 13.14 9 1 0.90
4   Aleks Kovacevic Illinois 14.20 17 2 0.89
4   David Gonzalez East Tenn State 13.09 15 2 0.88
4   Ty Gentry Oregon 13.48 15 2 0.88
 
5 96 Kyle Seelig Ohio State 13.64 16 6 0.73
5   Austen Huang Columbia 13.44 10 4 0.71
5   Gabe Pilones Navy 12.04 19 8 0.70
5   Chase Perez-Blanco Florida 13.81 14 6 0.70
5   Will Little Baylor 13.79 9 4 0.69
 
6   Louis Menard New Mexico State 12.36 14 1 0.93
6   Adrian Ortiz Texas 13.42 12 2 0.86
6 112 Martin Joyce Ohio State 13.98 20 4 0.83
6   Addy Vashistha Utah State 12.82 9 2 0.82
6   Leftherios Theodorou Oklahoma State 12.87 8 2 0.80

 

Top Individual UTRs (as of 5/8) - first W/L column is dual-match & second is overall

 Pos.  ITA  Player  School  UTR DM W L % Ov. W L
1 13 Aleks Vukic Illinois 14.76 13 6 0.68 13 6
2 65 Trevor Johnson TCU 14.75 15 4 0.79 15 4
1 6 Mikael Torpegaard Ohio State 14.74 21 6 0.78 25 7
2 4 Petros Chrysochos Wake Forest 14.70 23 1 0.96 34 4
1 3 WIlliam Blumberg North Carolina 14.69 18 3 0.86 24 3
1 21 Alex Rybakov TCU 14.69 13 3 0.81 18 5
1 2 Nuno Borges Mississippi State 14.66 16 4 0.80 23 5
1 9 Tom Fawcett Stanford 14.66 10 4 0.71 19 5
1 7 Borna Gojo Wake Forest 14.59 12 2 0.86 12 2
1 45 Gustav Hansson Ole Miss 14.51 6 4 0.60 9 5
2 32 Benjamin Sigouin North Carolina 14.51 16 3 0.84 16 3

 

 

 

 

Read 1906 times Last modified on Wednesday, 09 May 2018 03:47

1 comment

  • Comment Link Michael Tuesday, 08 May 2018 22:08 posted by Michael

    According to the team UFR, Baylor has reason to complain facing #20 ASU in round 1 and then if they win #1 Texas A&M.

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