Monday, 13 May 2019 17:05

NCAA Men's Quarterfinals Preview

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The NCAA Quarterfinals get started at noon eastern this Thursday at the USTA National Campus in Lake Nona. In case you missed the announcement last week the USTA and the Tennis Channel have entered into a three-year partnership beginning with this week where the Tennis Channel will show more than 50 hours of live matches during the NCAA Championships. During the team portion of the NCAAs the Tennis Channel will show the two late matches each day and then on Sunday they'll show both the men's and women's finals. The USTA National Campus website has plenty of information on the NCAAs and also lists all the matches that the Tennis Channel will show all the way through the individual tournament. 

The eight quarterfinalists are all ranked in the most recent ITA Top 10 and I think all eight have a reasonable chance to win it all. Virginia, Wake Forest, and Baylor are the only programs of the eight remaining that have won an NCAA Championship and with Virginia and Wake set to meet on Thursday that means that at most they'll be two former champs left by the weekend. 

All eight teams that won last week had the higher UTR Power 6 so it that holds up again on Thursday the four semifinalists would be North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida, and Texas. The difference between Ohio State and North Carolina as of Sunday evening was a microscopic 0.08 so there's a chance that by match time those numbers may have shifted back towards Ohio State - regardless it should be a heck of a match. 

Slam.Tennis shows that Ohio State has the largest expected winning percentage at 88% while Florida is the smallest favorite at just 57%. 

The weather forecast for Thursday shows temperatures should be in the mid to upper 80s and by the weekend they'll be up around 90 so it's going to be a battle of attrition. 

UTR-Power 6 Variance:
[3] Florida vs. [6] Baylor: FLA +1.46
[2] Texas vs. [10] TCU - TX +1.03
[4] Wake Forest vs. [5] Virginia - Wake +0.81
[1] Ohio State vs. [9] North Carolina - UNC +0.08
 
Slam.Tennis Expected Winning Percentage (EWP):
[1] Ohio State vs. [9] North Carolina: OhioSt 88%
[2] Texas vs. [10] TCU: TX 79%
[4] Wake Forest vs. [5] Virginia: Wake 65%
[3] Florida vs. [6] Baylor: FLA 57%
   

 

#1 Ohio State vs. #9 North Carolina (Thursday 5 pm ET)

Road to the Super Regionals
 
#1 Ohio State
  • def. #86 Cleveland State 4-0
  • def. #35 Vanderbilt 4-0
  • def. #16 Columbia 4-1
#9 North Carolina
  • def. #121 Navy 4-0
  • def. #18 Georgia 4-0
  • def. #8 USC 4-1
 
All-Time Series: Ohio State 10-3
 
Most Recent Meeting: 2018 - Ohio State 4-3 (National Indoors Consolation)
 
Notes:
Ohio State has advanced to the Elite 8 four years in a row and 13 times in the last 14 years
  • Ohio State has only dropped the doubles point twice this year going 1-1 in those two matches - lost to Texas 4-1; def. Michigan 4-2
  • John McNally and Hunter Tubert are a perfect 21-0 in dual-match doubles play
  • JJ Wolf has only dropped six sets in dual-match play while going 26-1 at the top spot
  • John McNally has won 14 of his last 15 completed matches
  • Kyle Seelig has won his last 12 completed matches (last loss on March 14 vs. Texas's Yuya Ito)
  • Martin Joyce has won 7 straight matches (6 in straight sets)
  • Alex Kobelt has won 9 of his last 10 completed matches (loss was against Columbia in R16) and is 20-2 on the season
  • Hunter Tubert has won his last 4 completed matches and 7 of his last 9
North Carolina has advanced to the Elite 8 for the 5th time in the last 6 years
  • Will Blumberg has won 5 of his last 7 completed matches (last three matches have gone unfinished
  • Ben Sigouin has won 6 of his last 7 completed matches (was leading in his last three unfinished matches)
  • Josh Peck has won 8 of his last 10 completed matches 
  • Brian Cernoch has won 7 of his last 8 completed matches
  • Bo Boyden has won 8 straight matches 
  • Simon Soendergaard has won 3 of his last 4 completed matches (lost his last match)
  • Mac Kiger has lost 4 of his last 6 completed matches
 
If table below is blocked by the page border click here to view separately  
 
ITA  Seed School W/L Dubs W/L UTR P6
Thursday, 5 p.m. ET @ Lake Nona, FL
1 1 Ohio State 32-2 32-2 82.26
10 9 North Carolina 21-6 21-5 82.34
Projected Doubles Lineup
Pos
ITA Rank
Player
Team
UTR
DM  
ITA Rank
Player
Team
UTR
DM
W L W L
1 23 Martin Joyce 
JJ Wolf
Ohio State 16 4
vs.
13 William Blumberg 
Bo Boyden
North Carolina 18 3
2 51 Alex Kobelt 
Kyle Seelig
Ohio State 15 1 90 Brian Cernoch 
Benjamin Sigouin
North Carolina 8 7
3   John McNally 
Hunter Tubert
Ohio State 21 0   Mac Kiger 
Simon Soendergaard
North Carolina 18 2
Projected Singles Lineup
1 2 JJ Wolf Ohio State 14.76 26 1
vs.
19 WIlliam Blumberg UNC 14.38 7 5
2 26 John McNally Ohio State 13.63 20 3 39 Benjamin Sigouin UNC 14.14 14 5
3 60 Kyle Seelig Ohio State 13.56 17 5 110 Josh Peck UNC 13.49 14 7
4 111 Martin Joyce Ohio State 13.45 21 6 116 Brian Cernoch UNC 13.59 15 6
5   Alex Kobelt Ohio State 13.53 20 2   Bo Boyden UNC 13.50 20 3
6   Hunter Tubert Ohio State 13.33 18 5   Simon Soendergaard UNC 13.24 8 3
Bench Players
7   Tim Seibert Ohio State 13.08 1 1     Mac Kiger UNC 13.13 9 5
8   James Trotter Ohio State 13.21 5 1   Ladd Harrison UNC 11.68 1 1

 

Prediction & Thoughts: This should be an excellent match with Ohio State banking on doubles, Wolf, Seelig, and probably Tubert while UNC is probably thinking that doubles, Sigouin, Cernoch, and Boyden are its ticket but also hoping that Blumberg can replicate his performance against Wolf during the opening round of the 2017 NCAA Singles Tournament. There seem to be more paths to victory for Ohio State but I'm going to take North Carolina in an upset - North Carolina 4-3

 

#5 Virginia at #4 Wake Forest (Thursday 12 pm ET)

Road to the Super Regionals
 
#3 Wake Forest
  • def. #132 Morgan State 5-0
  • def. #36 Kentucky 4-1
  • def. #21 Oklahoma 4-1
#5 Virginia
  • def. #107 St. John's 4-0
  • def. #17 South Carolina 4-1
  • def. #12 Stanford 4-2
 
All-Time Series: Virginia 62-24
 
Most Recent Meeting: 2019 - Wake Forest 4-2 (ACC Championship Finals)
 
Notes:
 
Wake Forest has won 17 straight matches and is in the Elite 8 for the 3rd year in a row
  • Borna Gojo has won his last 10 completed matches with his last loss Feb 17 to Ohio State's JJ Wolf (1-1 vs. Soderlund)
  • Petros Chrysochos has won his last 10 completed matches 
  • Bar Botzer has won his last 10 completed matches (2-0 record vs. Wiersholm)
  • Rrezart Cungu has won 3 straight and 5 of his last 6 completed matches (2-0 vs. Ross)
  • Melios Efstathiou has won 13 of his last 14 completed matches (1-0 vs. Goetz)
  • Sid Banthia has won 3 straight and 7 of his last 9 matches (0-1 vs. Lizen)
Virginia has won 12 of its last 13 matches and is in the Elite 8 for the 14th time in the last 15 years
  • Carl Soderlund has won 10 of his last 11 completed matches
  • Brandon Nakashima has won 9 of his last 10 completed matches
  • Henrik Wiersholm has won 6 of his last 8 completed matches while his last 3 matches have gone unfinished (0-2 vs. Botzer this year)
  • Gianni Ross has won 6 of his last 8 completed matches but split his last 4 (0-2 vs. Cungu)
  • Ryan Goetz has lost 5 of his last 7 matches since returning from a two-month absence due to injury (0-1 vs. Efstathiou)
  • Aswin Lizen has won 6 of his last 7 completed matches (1-0 vs. Banthia)
ITA  Seed School W/L Dubs W/L UTR P6
Thursday, 12 p.m. ET @ Lake Nona, FL
3 4 Wake Forest 32-3 24-11 82.17
5 5 Virginia 24-4 18-10 81.36
Projected Doubles Lineup
Pos
ITA Rank
Player
Team
UTR
DM  
ITA Rank
Player
Team
UTR
DM
W L W L
1 63 Borna Gojo 
Alan Gadjiev
Wake Forest 10 8
vs.
33 Henrik Wiersholm 
Brandon Nakashima
Virginia 18 3
2 55 Petros Chrysochos 
Bar Botzer
Wake Forest 16 5   Carl Soderlund 
Aswin Lizen
Virginia 1 0
3   Melios Efstathiou 
Sid Banthia
Wake Forest 12 9   Gianni Ross 
William Woodall
Virginia 3 0
Projected Singles Lineup
1 11 Borna Gojo Wake Forest 14.45 11 3
vs.
3 Carl Soderlund Virginia 14.44 20 4
2 8 Petros Chrysochos Wake Forest 14.42 22 2 82 Brandon Nakashima Virginia 13.97 17 5
3 50 Bar Botzer Wake Forest 13.72 23 2 114 Henrik Wiersholm Virginia 13.56 15 4
4   Rrezart Cungu Wake Forest 13.04 17 8   Gianni Ross Virginia 13.19 14 7
5   Melios Efstathiou Wake Forest 13.45 21 7   Ryan Goetz Virginia 13.23 8 8
6   Sid Banthia Wake Forest 13.09 21 7   Aswin Lizen Virginia 12.97 14 7
Bench Players
7   Yuval Solomon Wake Forest 12.78 7 5     Matt Lord Virginia 12.25 3 5
8   Julian Zlobinsky Wake Forest 12.92 12 3   William Woodall Virginia 12.19 2 2
 
 
Regular Season Meeting:
 

#4 Wake Forest 4, #5 Virginia 2
Apr 21, 2019 at Cary, NC -- Cary Tennis Park
Singles Competition
1. #14 Borna Gojo (WF) def. #5 Carl Soderlund (VA) 6-4, 6-2
2. #82 Brandon Nakashima (VA) vs. #4 Petros Chrysochos (WF) 7-6 (3), 5-6, unfinished
3. #34 Bar Botzer (WF) def. Henrik Wiersholm (VA) 7-5, 7-6 (8-6)
4. Rrezart Cungu (WF) def. Gianni Ross (VA) 6-2, 6-2
5. #95 Melios Efstathiou (WF) def. Ryan Goetz (VA) 6-3, 6-1
6. Aswin Lizen (VA) def. Siddhant Banthia (WF) 6-4, 6-0
Doubles Competition
1. #37 Brandon Nakashima and Henrik Wiersholm (VA) def. #64 Alan Gadjiev and Borna Gojo (WF) 7-6 (7-5)
2. #41 Bar Botzer and Petros Chrysochos (WF) def. Matthew Lord and Carl Soderlund (VA) 6-3
3. Gianni Ross and William Woodall (VA) def. Siddhant Banthia and Melios Efstathiou (WF) 7-6 (7-3)
Match Notes
Virginia 21-4
Wake Forest 29-3
Order of finish: Singles -- 6 5 1 4 3 ; Doubles -- 2 3 1

 

#2 Wake Forest 6, #3 Virginia 1
March 17, 2019 at Winston-Salem, NC
Singles Competition
1. #89 Borna Gojo (WF) def. #50 Brandon Nakashima (VA) 6-4, 7-6(4)
2. #15 Carl Soderlund (VA) def. #2 Petros Chrysochos (WF) 6-4, 7-5
3. #21 Bar Botzer (WF) def. Henrik Wiersholm (VA) 7-6(6), 6-4
4. Rrezart Cungu (WF) def. #96 Gianni Ross (VA) 6-1, 2-6, 6-4
5. #60 Melios Efstathiou (WF) def. Aswin Lizen (VA) 7-6(4), 6-3
6. Siddhant Banthia (WF) def. Matthew Lord (VA) 7-6(6), 6-3
Doubles Competition
1. Alan Gadjiev/Borna Gojo (WF) def. Carl Soderlund/Matthew Lord (VA) 6-4
2. #71 Brandon Nakashima/Henrik Wiersholm (VA) def. #35 Bar Botzer/Petros Chrysochos (WF) 6-3
3. Siddhant Banthia/Julian Zlobsinsky (WF) def. Gianni Ross/Aswin Lizen (VA) 7-5
Match Notes
Virginia 12-3
Wake Forest 17-3
Order of finish: Singles (6,1,2,5,4,3); Doubles (2,1,3 )

 

#13 Virginia 5, #1 Wake Forest 2
Feb 8, 2019 at Charlottesville, Va (Boar's Head Sports Club)
Singles Competition
1. Carl Soderlund (UVA) def. Borna Gojo (WF) 4-6, 7-6(3), 6-1
2. #1 Petros Chrysochos (WF) def. Henrik Wiersholm (UVA) 7-6(4), 6-3
3. Brandon Nakashima (UVA) def. #25 Bar Botzer (WF) 6-4, 6-3
4. #38 Gianni Ross (UVA) def. #39 Melios Efstathiou (WF) 7-6(4), 6-2
5. #54 Ryan Goetz (UVA) def. #80 Rrezart Cungu (WF) 6-0, 6-2
6. Aswin Lizen (UVA) def. Julian Zlobinski (WF) 4-6, 6-4, 6-4
Doubles Competition
1. Borna Gojo/Alan Gadjiev (WF) def. Carl Soderlund/William Woodall (UVA) 6-4
2. Petros Chrysochos/Bar Botzer (WF) vs. Henrik Wiersholm/Brandon Nakashima (UVA) 4-4, unf.
3. Siddhant Banthia/Melios Efstathiou (WF) def. Ryan Goetz/Gianni Ross (UVA) 6-4
Match Notes
Virginia 6-1
Wake Forest 6-1
Order of finish; Singles (5,3,4,2,6,1); Doubles (1,3)

 
Prediction & Thoughts: The fourth and final installment of the season between these two will be the most meaningful. Wake won the doubles point in two of the three regular season meetings however they dropped the point against Kentucky and Oklahoma. Carl Soderlund and Borna Gojo split their regular season meetings with Soderlund winning indoors while Gojo won outdoors. Bar Botzer won both of his matches against Henrik Wiersholm at No. 3 as did Rrezart Cungu versus Gianni Ross at No. 4. Virginia can't afford to get swept at 4 and 5 again because if they do they aren't winning this match. Virginia's path to the semifinals is doubles, Soderlund, Lizen, and Nakashima while Wake is going to be banking on Chrysochos, Botzer, Cungu, and Efstathiou - Wake Forest 4-3
 
 
 

#6 Baylor at #3 Florida (Thursday 7 pm ET)

Road to the Super Regionals
 
#3 Florida
  • def. #95 Florida Gulf Coast 4-0
  • def. #28 Florida State 4-0
  • def. #14 Tennessee 4-2
#6 Baylor
  • def. #42 Utah 4-0
  • def. #20 Michigan 4-1
  • def. #11 UCLA 4-1
 
All-Time Series: Tied 6-6
 
Most Recent Meeting: 2013 - Baylor 4-3
 
Notes:
 
Florida is in the Elite 8 for the 3rd time in the last 4 years (8th overall) - last advanced to the semifinals in 2005 (lost to Baylor 4-1) 
  • Oliver Crawford has won 8 of his last 9 completed matches
  • Sam Riffice has won 13 of his last 16 matches though those 3 losses came in his last 4 matches 
  • Johannes Ingildsen has won 9 of his last 11 completed matches (though split his last 4)
  • Alfredo Perez has won his last 9 completed matches
  • Andy Andrade has won 6 of his last 7 completed matches
  • Duarte Vale has won his last 13 completed matches
  • Lukas Greif had won 5 straight matches before losing to Tennessee's Andrew Rogers
  • McClain Kessler has won his last 7 matches
Baylor is appearing in the Elite 8 for the 13th time - first since 2015 (made semis before a 4-2 loss to UVA)
  • Johannes Schretter has won 7 of his last 10 completed matches
  • Matias Soto has won his last 4 completed matches (only lost once this year at No. 2 singles)
  • Adrian Boitan has won 8 of his last 9 matches (7 in straight sets)
  • Will Little has won 6 of his last 7 completed matches
  • Sven Lah has won 6 straight and 14 of his last 16 completed matches 
  • Jimmy Bendeck has won 8 of his last 9 completed matches
 
ITA  Seed School W/L Dubs W/L UTR P6
Thursday, 7 p.m. ET @ Lake Nona, FL
4 3 Florida 24-3 19-8 82.90
6 6 Baylor 25-5 22-8 81.44
Projected Doubles Lineup
Pos
ITA Rank
Player
Team
UTR
DM  
ITA Rank
Player
Team
UTR
DM
W L W L
1   Johannes Ingildsen 
McClain Kessler
Florida 5 3
vs.
1 Jimmy Bendeck 
Sven Lah
Baylor 15 4
2   Alfredo Perez 
Sam Riffice
Florida 2 1   Matias Soto 
Will Little
Baylor 8 3
3   Andy Andrade 
Duarte Vale
Florida 4 0   Johannes Schretter 
Constantin Frantzen
Baylor 10 2
Projected Singles Lineup
1 9 Oliver Crawford Florida 14.28 15 8
vs.
20 Johannes Schretter Baylor 13.74 11 8
2 54 Sam Riffice Florida 14.08 18 6 25 Matias Soto Baylor 13.85 18 4
3 113 Johannes Ingildsen Florida 13.63 18 5 112 Adrian Boitan Baylor 13.81 16 4
4   Alfredo Perez Florida 13.71 9 1 78 Will Little Baylor 13.47 15 3
5 59 Andy Andrade Florida 13.68 17 7 76 Sven Lah Baylor 13.51 22 3
6 90 Duarte Vale Florida 13.52 15 1   Jimmy Bendeck Baylor 13.06 14 4
Bench Players
7   Lukas Greif Florida 13.49 11 2     Kyrylo Tsygura Baylor 13.43 5 1
8   McClain Kessler Florida 13.42 8 1   Constantin Frantzen Baylor 12.80 7 1
 
 
Prediction & Thoughts: Florida should feel right at home playing in Orlando but a motivated Baylor team with three senior starters are going to pose some issues. While Baylor was taking it to UCLA in the Round of 16, Florida was on the ropes against Tennessee before a Vale-iant comeback saved the day. One of the biggest question marks will be whether Johannes Ingildsen plays singles, after he didn't play against Tennessee, however Florida is deep enough in singles that him not playing wouldn't be the same kind of blow that it would be for some other teams. I like Baylor in doubles and at 2 and 3 but I'll take Florida everywhere else - Florida 4-3
 
 

#10 TCU at #2 Texas (Thursday 2 pm ET)

Road to the Super Regionals
 
#2 Texas
  • def. #148 Tennessee Tech 4-0
  • def. #37 South Florida 4-1
  • #24 California 4-0
#10 TCU
  • def. #41 Harvard 4-1
  • def. #27 Arizona State 4-1
  • def. #7 Mississippi State 4-2
 
All-Time Series: Texas 29-21
 
Most Recent Meeting: 2019 - Texas 6-1 
 
Notes:
 
Texas is into the Elite 8 for the 3rd time in the last 6 years (16th overall)
  • Christian Sigsgaard has won 7 of his last 8 completed matches
  • Yuya Ito has won his last 3 matches and 15 of his last 17
  • Leo Telles has lost his last 3 completed matches 
  • Harrison Scott has won his last 6 completed matches and 8 of his last 9
  • Colin Markes has won 7 of his last 8 matches
  • Rodrigo Banzer has won 6 of his last 7 completed matches
TCU is into the Elite 8 for the 3rd time in the last 5 years (10th overall)
  • Alex Rybakov has won 13 of his last 16 completed matches (though lost 2 of last 3)
  • Alastair Gray has won his last 3 completed matches
  • Reese Stalder has lost 7 of his last 9 completed matches
  • Bertus Kruger has won 3 of his last 4 completed matches after losing the previous 5
  • Luc Fomba has won 5 of his last 6 completed matches
  • Sander Jong has won his last 5 completed matches
 
 
ITA  Seed School W/L Dubs W/L UTR P6
Thursday, 2 p.m. ET @ Lake Nona, FL
2 2 Texas 26-3 20-7 82.37
9 10 TCU 22-6 19-9 81.34
Projected Doubles Lineup
Pos
ITA Rank
Player
Team
UTR
DM  
ITA Rank
Player
Team
UTR
DM
W L W L
1 5 Harrison Scott 
Christian Sigsgaard
Texas 13 6
vs.
15 Alex Rybakov 
Alastair Gray
TCU 15 6
2   Colin Markes 
Leonardo Telles
Texas 13 9 22 Bertus Kruger 
Reese Stalder
TCU 16 9
3   Chih Chi Huang 
Yuya Ito
Texas 15 5   Luc Fomba 
Sander Jong
TCU 9 10
Projected Singles Lineup
1 7 Christian Sigsgaard Texas 14.11 16 7
vs.
4 Alex Rybakov TCU 14.40 16 4
2 12 Yuya Ito Texas 14.29 25 3 28 Alastair Gray TCU 13.90 16 4
3 80 Leonardo Telles Texas 13.42 13 5   Reese Stalder TCU 13.27 14 11
4 55 Harrison Scott Texas 13.61 18 5   Bertus Kruger TCU 13.24 15 9
5   Colin Markes Texas 13.63 18 3   Luc Fomba TCU 13.41 18 5
6   Rodrigo Banzer Texas 13.31 11 3   Sander Jong TCU 13.12 12 7
Bench Players
7   Chih Chi Huang Texas 13.17 11 5     Eduardo Roldan TCU 12.62 2 1
8   Johnny Goodwin Texas 12.32 1 1   Juan Martin TCU 12.50 0 1
 
 

Regular Season Meeting

#4 Texas 6, #10 TCU 1
Apr 06, 2019 at Fort Worth, Texas (Bayard H. Friedman Tennis Center)
Singles competition
1. #7 Christian Sigsgaard (UT) def. #4 Alex Rybakov (TCU) 4-6, 6-3, 6-2
2. #5 Yuya Ito (UT) def. #20 Alastair Gray (TCU) 6-4, 6-2
3. #90 Leonardo Telles (UT) def. Reese Stalder (TCU) 6-3, 7-5
4. #61 Harrison Scott (UT) def. Bertus Kruger (TCU) 6-2, 5-7, 6-2
5. Colin Markes (UT) def. Luc Fomba (TCU) 6-2, 2-6, 6-4
6. Rodrigo Banzer (UT) def. Sander Jong (TCU) 7-6 (7-4), 4-6, 1-0 (10-7)
Doubles competition
1. #45 Alastair Gray/Alex Rybakov (TCU) def. #3 Harrison Scott/Christian Sigsgaard (UT) 6-4
2. #13 Bertus Kruger/Reese Stalder (TCU) def. Colin Markes/Leonardo Telles (UT) 6-3
3. Luc Fomba/Sander Jong (TCU) vs. Chih Chi Huang/Yuya Ito (UT) 3-5, unfinished
Match Notes:
Texas 20-2, 3-0 Big 12; National ranking #4
TCU 16-5, 1-2 Big 12; National ranking #10
Order of finish: Doubles (1,2); Singles (2,3,5,1,4,6)
T-2:45

 
Prediction & Thoughts: In the regular season meeting in Fort Worth, Texas spotted TCU the doubles point and then put the hammer down in singles. Both teams will have the exact same lineups as the last meeting however TCU is coming off a big confidence building road win over Mississippi State. TCU's best path to victory is the doubles point, Rybakov, Fomba, and Jong. Texas has to feel confident about Ito, Telles, Scott, and hope they can get the fourth point in one of the other toss-ups - Texas 4-2

 

Read 1557 times Last modified on Tuesday, 14 May 2019 02:14

2 comments

  • Comment Link Wired Monday, 13 May 2019 22:32 posted by Wired

    It would be a great stat to see a list of college players in order of biggest increase in UTR since Sept.

    I got OSU men and SCarolina women winning it all.

    I got Baylor men over FL. If Stanford and SC can take down FL, Baylor can. Doubles will be the key, like usual.

  • Comment Link KDB Thursday, 16 May 2019 14:05 posted by KDB

    @Wired Ironically a lot of college players' UTRs have gone down since Sept '18 or even spring 2018. One example George Harwell of Vandy played 6 last year and reached 13.47 at the end of the season. This year he played 2 and has a UTR of 12.97. I assume the players with the biggest UTR increase will be those who had cross play with pros in late fall or winter. Those who only played Futures matches in summer or early fall will have those matches dropped if their match total is over 30. Now that many college players cant get in Futures, they cant get the summer bump in UTR. Too bad UTR doesnt use a year's worth of matches to calculate ratings or at least keep the top 6 best results and then the latest 24. Opportunity to play higher ranked opponents or the lack thereof can count for .5-.75 of UTR rating. It also hurts that lower players who are playing well vs higher ranked college opponents often dont get to finish college dual matches so no boost to UTR; the lines with the easy 2 set wins get the higher ranked team the 4 points before the 3 setters finish. Dont know how coaches can compare freshmen, transfers, etc with the algorithm often showing big swings in ratings. I know of former 5 star players who are 1.5 UTR below their best ranking 3 years ago as juniors even though they are winning for their teams and high in the lineups because they play D3 but there are also a lot of D1 players who have dropped .5-.75 winning the same % of matches as they did a year ago.

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