Friday, 17 May 2019 10:02

NCAA Men's Semifinals Preview

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Semifinal Saturday is less than 24 hours away with Wake Forest and North Carolina set to meet for the third time in the last three months while Texas and Florida will meet for the first time in over two years. Both matches are expected to be extremely close with the UTRs of most individual matchups almost identical. 

The heat and humidity played a role in Thursday's matches and will likely be a factor again on Saturday with temps expected to be in the upper 80s. Both Wake Forest and North Carolina were on the court for 3 hours on Thursday, though the Heels played under the lights, while Texas and Florida were both off the court in just over 2 hours so neither team in either matchup will really have much of a rest advantage. 

Let's get to it and take a look at the numbers. 

UTR-Power 6 Variance:
[4] Wake Forest vs. [9] North Carolina: UNC +0.06
[2] Texas vs. [3] Florida - FLA +0.53
 
Slam.Tennis Expected Winning Percentage (EWP):
[4] Wake Forest vs. [9] North Carolina: Wake 73%
[2] Texas vs. [3] Florida: TX 53%
   

 

#4 Wake Forest vs. #9 North Carolina (Saturday 4 pm ET)

Road to the Super Regionals
 
#3 Wake Forest
  • def. #132 Morgan State 5-0
  • def. #36 Kentucky 4-1
  • def. #21 Oklahoma 4-1
  • def. #5 Virginia 4-2
#9 North Carolina
  • def. #121 Navy 4-0
  • def. #18 Georgia 4-0
  • def. #8 USC 4-1
  • def. #1 Ohio State 4-2
 
All-Time Series: North Carolina 37-21 (Wake has won 7 of the last 8 - loss was in 2017 NCAA SF)
 
Most Recent Meeting: 2019 - Wake Forest 5-2 outdoors in W-S
 
Notes:
Wake Forest has won 18 straight matches and is the semifinals for the second year in a row
  • Wake has dropped the doubles point in its last 3 matches
  • Borna Gojo has won his last 11 completed matches with his last loss Feb 17 to Ohio State's JJ Wolf (2-0 vs. Blumberg)
  • Petros Chrysochos has won his last 10 completed matches (2-0 vs. Sigouin)
  • Bar Botzer has won his last 11 completed matches (1-0 vs. Peck)
  • Rrezart Cungu has split his last 6 completed matches 
  • Melios Efstathiou has won 14 of his last 15 completed matches (1-0 vs. Boyden)
  • Sid Banthia has won 4 straight and 8 of his last 10 matches (0-1 vs. Kiger)
North Carolina is making its second appearance in the semifinals with its other coming two years ago (made finals vs. Virginia)
  • Will Blumberg has lost 3 of his last 5 completed matches  (0-2 vs. Blumberg)
  • Ben Sigouin has won 7 of his last 8 completed matches (0-2 vs Chrysochos) 
  • Josh Peck has won 8 of his last 11 completed matches (0-1 vs. Botzer)
  • Brian Cernoch has won 8 of his last 9 completed matches
  • Bo Boyden has won 9 straight matches (0-1 vs. Efstathiou)
  • Simon Soendergaard has won 3 of his last 4 completed matches (lost his last match)
  • Mac Kiger has lost 4 of his last 6 completed matches (1-0 vs. Banthia)
 
If table below is blocked by the page border click here to view separately  
 
ITA  Seed School W/L Dubs W/L UTR P6
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET @ Lake Nona, FL
3 4 Wake Forest 33-3 24-12 82.17
10 9 North Carolina 22-6 22-5 82.23
Projected Doubles Lineup
Pos
ITA Rank
Player
Team
UTR
DM  
ITA Rank
Player
Team
UTR
DM
W L W L
1 63 Borna Gojo 
Alan Gadjiev
Wake Forest 10 9
vs.
13 William Blumberg 
Bo Boyden
North Carolina 18 4
2 55 Petros Chrysochos 
Bar Botzer
Wake Forest 17 5 90 Brian Cernoch 
Benjamin Sigouin
North Carolina 9 7
3   Melios Efstathiou 
Sid Banthia
Wake Forest 12 10   Mac Kiger 
Simon Soendergaard
North Carolina 19 2
Projected Singles Lineup
1 11 Borna Gojo Wake Forest 14.45 14 3
vs.
19 WIlliam Blumberg UNC 14.38 7 6
2 8 Petros Chrysochos Wake Forest 14.42 22 2 39 Benjamin Sigouin UNC 14.14 15 5
3 50 Bar Botzer Wake Forest 13.72 24 2 110 Josh Peck UNC 13.49 14 8
4   Rrezart Cungu Wake Forest 13.04 17 9 116 Brian Cernoch UNC 13.59 16 6
5   Melios Efstathiou Wake Forest 13.45 22 7   Bo Boyden UNC 13.50 21 3
6   Sid Banthia Wake Forest 13.09 22 7   Mac Kiger UNC 13.13 9 5
Bench Players
7   Yuval Solomon Wake Forest 12.78 7 5     Simon Soendergaard UNC 13.24 8 3
8   Julian Zlobinsky Wake Forest 12.92 12 3   Ladd Harrison UNC 11.68 1 1
 
Regular Season Meeting:
 

#3 Wake Forest 5, #11 North Carolina 2
3/27/2019 at Winston-Salem, NC (Wake Forest Tennis Complex)
Singles competition
1. #50 Borna Gojo (WAKE) def. #26 William Blumberg (UNC) 2-6, 6-3, 6-3
2. #3 Petros Chrysochos (WAKE) def. #37 Benjamin Sigouin (UNC) 6-4, 6-2
3. #22 Bar Botzer (WAKE) def. #110 Brian Cernoch (UNC) 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
4. #79 Melios Efstathiou (WAKE) def. Blaine Boyden (UNC) 7-6(2), 3-6, 6-4
5. Rrezart Cungu (WAKE) def. #109 Josh Peck (UNC) 7-5, 6-3
6. Mac Kiger (UNC) def. Sid Banthia (WAKE) 6-4, 6-2
Doubles competition
1. #53 William Blumberg/Blaine Boyden (UNC) def. #61 Alan Gadjiev/Borna Gojo (WAKE) 6-4
2. #26 Bar Botzer/Petros Chrysochos (WAKE) def. Brian Cernoch/Ben Sigouin (UNC) 6-3
3. Mac Kiger/Simon Soendergaard (UNC) def. Siddhant Banthia/Julian Zlobinsky (WAKE) 6-2
Match Notes:
North Carolina 12-4; National ranking #11
Wake Forest 22-3; National ranking #3
Order of finish: Doubles (3,2,1); Singles (6,2,5,1,3,4)

#1 Wake Forest 4, #8 North Carolina 2
2/17/2019 at Chicago, IL (Midtown Athletic Club)
Singles competition
1. Borna Gojo (WAKE) def. #52 William Blumberg (UNC) 6-3, 4-6, 7-5
2. #1 Petros Chrysochos (WAKE) def. Benjamin Sigouin (UNC) 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-3
3. #21 Bar Botzer (WAKE) def. #36 Josh Peck (UNC) 3-6, 7-5, 6-1
4. #77 Brian Cernoch (UNC) def. #49 Melios Efstathiou (WAKE) 6-2, 6-4
5. Simon Soendergaard (UNC) led Yuval Solomon (WAKE) 2-6, 6-3, 5-3* (40/30)
6. Blaine Boyden (UNC) def. Sid Banthia (WAKE) 7-6(4), 6-2
Doubles competition
1. Alan Gadjiev/Borna Gojo (WAKE) def. Brian Cernoch/Benjamin Sigouin (UNC) 7-6(2)
2. Bar Botzer/Petros Chrysochos (WAKE) def. William Blumberg/Blaine Boyden (UNC) 6-3
3. Mac Kiger/Simon Soendergaard (UNC) def. Siddhant Banthia/Julian Zlobinsky (WAKE) 7-6(6)
Match Notes:
North Carolina 7-2; National ranking #8
Wake Forest 12-1; National ranking #1
Order of finish: Doubles (2,3,1); Singles (4,6,1,2,3)

 
Thoughts & Prediction: I think both teams know what they need to do going into this third encounter of the year. Wake will be banking on sweeping the top 3 spots in the singles lineup and then either stealing the doubles point or getting a win from Banthia or Efstathiou. UNC will be expecting to take the doubles point while adding wins from Cernoch, Boyden, and Kiger who I believe will get the start over Soendergaard at No. 6 due to his previous win vs. Banthia - Wake Forest 4-3
 
 

#2 Texas vs. #3 Florida (Saturday 12 pm ET)

Road to the Super Regionals
 
#2 Texas
  • def. #148 Tennessee Tech 4-0
  • def. #37 South Florida 4-1
  • def. #24 California 4-0
  • def. #10 TCU 4-1
#3 Florida
  • def. #95 Florida Gulf Coast 4-0
  • def. #28 Florida State 4-0
  • def. #14 Tennessee 4-2
  • def. #6 Baylor 4-0
 
All-Time Series: Texas 9-6
 
Most Recent Meeting: 2017 - Texas 4-2 (National Team Indoors Round of 16) 
 
Notes:
 
Texas is into the semifinals for the fifth time in program history (2009/2008/2006/1993) and will be seeking its second trip to the finals (2008)
  • Christian Sigsgaard has won 7 of his last 9 completed matches
  • Yuya Ito has won his last 4 matches and 16 of his last 18
  • Leo Telles has lost his last 3 completed matches 
  • Harrison Scott has won his last 7 completed matches and 9 of his last 10
  • Colin Markes has won 7 of his last 8 matches
  • Rodrigo Banzer has won 7 of his last 8 completed matches
Florida is into the semifinals for the third time in program history (2005/2000) but has never made it to the finals
  • Oliver Crawford has won 8 of his last 9 completed matches
  • Sam Riffice has won 14 of his last 17 matches though those 3 losses came in his last 5 matches 
  • Johannes Ingildsen has won 9 of his last 11 completed matches (though split his last 4)
  • Alfredo Perez has won his last 9 completed matches
  • Andy Andrade has won 7 of his last 8 completed matches
  • Duarte Vale has won his last 13 completed matches
  • McClain Kessler has won his last 8 matches
  • Lukas Greif had won 5 straight matches before losing to Tennessee's Andrew Rogers
 
ITA  Seed School W/L Dubs W/L UTR P6
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET @ Lake Nona, FL
2 2 Texas 27-3 21-7 82.37
4 3 Florida 25-3 20-8 82.90
Projected Doubles Lineup
Pos
ITA Rank
Player
Team
UTR
DM  
ITA Rank
Player
Team
UTR
DM
W L W L
1 5 Harrison Scott 
Christian Sigsgaard
Texas 14 6
vs.
  Johannes Ingildsen 
McClain Kessler
Florida 6 3
2   Colin Markes 
Leonardo Telles
Texas 14 9   Alfredo Perez 
Oliver Crawford
Florida 3 1
3   Chih Chi Huang 
Yuya Ito
Texas 15 5   Andy Andrade 
Duarte Vale
Florida 4 0
Projected Singles Lineup
1 7 Christian Sigsgaard Texas 14.11 16 8
vs.
9 Oliver Crawford Florida 14.28 15 8
2 12 Yuya Ito Texas 14.29 26 3 54 Sam Riffice Florida 14.08 19 6
3 80 Leonardo Telles Texas 13.42 13 5 113 Johannes Ingildsen Florida 13.63 18 5
4 55 Harrison Scott Texas 13.61 19 5   Alfredo Perez Florida 13.71 9 1
5   Colin Markes Texas 13.63 18 3 59 Andy Andrade Florida 13.68 18 7
6   Rodrigo Banzer Texas 13.31 12 3 90 Duarte Vale Florida 13.52 15 1
Bench Players
7   Chih Chi Huang Texas 13.17 11 5     Lukas Greif Florida 13.49 11 2
8   Johnny Goodwin Texas 12.32 1 1   McClain Kessler Florida 13.42 9 1
 
 
Thoughts & Prediction: Both teams are coming off dominating performances in the Elite 8 and each seems to be hitting their peak at the right time. Florida brought Johannes Ingildsen back into the singles lineup against Baylor, after he sat out against Tennessee, while McClain Kessler replaced Duarte Vale, who clinched the Tennessee match, at No. 6 singles. It'd be tough not to play Kessler again after he only dropped 1 game against Bendeck but how do you keep a 15-1 Duarte Vale out of the lineup for a second match in a row - maybe we'll see them both while Ingildsen doesn't play? Regardless of who plays and where I like Florida in this one with the Gators taking doubles and getting singles wins from Perez, Andrade, Vale/Kessler while Texas adds wins from Sigsgaard and Ito - Florida 4-2

 

Read 1058 times Last modified on Friday, 17 May 2019 11:12

3 comments

  • Comment Link RP Friday, 17 May 2019 15:20 posted by RP

    Hello Bobby,

    The TV coverage was not the only thing that could be improved. We arrived early to watch the first doubles point. If you did not bring cash, you had to wait in line for 1 person to manual join you to Ticketmaster and set up an account and be charged a service fee even though we were standing right there in person. It took 25 minutes. One person one computer. USTA National Campus, are you kidding me...we missed most of the doubles point play...
    The other thing. Please do not schedule the NCAA’s in the middle of Love bug mating season. Millions of Love bugs everywhere. On the balls, in your hair, in your drinks, on the players. It was insane!!
    Outside of all of this, great energy on the courts and in the stands. Details around the event for the fans seem to be sub-standard at best...

  • Comment Link JAJ Friday, 17 May 2019 19:16 posted by JAJ

    Hate to have predicted this, but after going to the last two at Athens and Winston and having attended many college tennis matches at Lake Nona since it opened, I wondered if this was going to be the best venue for the NCAAs. My logic was based on the heat; lack of shade; and likelihood of rain delays in the second half of May. I completely forgot about love bug season, which only occurs in May and September for the most part but is worse than usual this year. I love the facility and think the USTA deserves huge credit for showcasing college tennis, particularly the TC Match Day events; but May in Orlando has a lot of downsides. On balance, however, I give the USTA and NCAA credit for trying to elevate this event. There's just a lot of obvious areas for improvement. And no, you are not going to get rid of love bugs by spraying them...

  • Comment Link blakelittle Saturday, 18 May 2019 09:45 posted by blakelittle

    I think the tennis channel addition is fine. But not being able to stream all the courts while the tennis channel is on is not fine, particularly for the parents and fans of the match. Both should be occurring at the same time. I was not able to see my son play his last college match since I was unable to be there in person.

    BAL

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