Saturday, 18 May 2019 07:20

NCAA Women's Semifinals Preview

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It'll be a quick turnaround for the women with everyone back on court less than 24 hours after completing their quarterfinal matches. North Carolina and Stanford will play the opening semifinal at 2 pm eastern while Georgia and Duke won't take the court until the conclusion of the men's semifinal between Wake Forest and North Carolina which I expect to be a lengthy 3 plus hour match. 

All your stats, trends, and records are listed down below in the match tables so look them over and try to figure out who will win. 

UTR-Power 6 Variance:
#1 Georgia vs. #5 Duke: UGA +0.62
#2 North Carolina vs. #3 Stanford: UNC +0.10
 
Slam.Tennis Expected Winning Percentage (EWP):
#1 Georgia vs. #5 Duke: UGA 61%
#2 North Carolina vs. #3 Stanford: UNC 60%
   

 

#1 Georgia vs. #5 Duke (Saturday NB 7 pm ET)

Road to the Super Regionals
 
#1 Georgia
  • def. Alabama State 4-0
  • def. #22 Wake Forest 4-0
  • def. #16 Michigan 4-2
  • def. #8 Vanderbilt 4-3
 
#5 Duke
  • def. James Madison 4-0
  • def. #36 Arizona State 4-0
  • def. #12 NC State 4-0
  • def. #4 South Carolina 4-1
 
All-Time Series: Georgia 15-13 (3-3 in NCAAs)
 
Most Recent Meeting: 2018 - Duke 4-3 (National Team Indoor QF) 
Most Recent Meeting in NCAAs: 2015 Second Round (Georgia 4-0)
 
Notes:

Georgia is in the Final Four for the first time since 2015 and 12th time overall - will be seeking its fourth appearance in the finals (2000/1994/1987)

  • Vivian Wolff and Elena Christofi ar 16-1 in doubles (only loss came in last match)
  • Vivian Wolff has won 19 straight matches and is 23-1 in dual-match play
  • Katarina Jokic's record in her last 18 matches is 3-2 with the other 15 going unfinished
  • Marta Gonzalez has won 2 of her last 3 matches (lost vs. Vanderbilt) while 9 of the 12 prior went unfinished
  • Lourdes Carle has won 14 of her last 16 completed matches (lost vs. Vanderbilt)
  • Elena Christofi has won 12 straight matches 
  • Meg Kowalski only lost one match all season - including the fall (SC's Rohrabacher on 4/21)

Duke is in the Final Four for the second year in a row, 10th time overall, and will seeking its third appearance in the finals (2009/1998)

  • Duke's Kaitlyn McCarthy and Meible Chi have only lost 1 time in doubles
  • Duke's Maria Mateas has lost her last 3 completed matches and 4 of her last 5
  • Duke's Meible Chi has won 8 of her last 9 completed matches 
  • Duke's Kelly Chen has won her last 7 completed matches
  • Duke's Kaitlyn McCarthy has won her last 4 matches 
  • Duke's Ellyse Hamlin has won her last 7 completed matches and 14 of her last 15 (12 in straight sets)
  • Duke's Margaryta Bilokin has won 9 of her last 10 matches 
 
If table below is blocked by the page border click here to view separately  
 
ITA  Seed School W/L Dubs W/L UTR P6
Saturday, NB 7 p.m. ET @ Lake Nona
2 1 Georgia 27-1 23-6 69.44
5 5 Duke 27-3 24-6 68.82
Projected Doubles Lineup
Pos
ITA Rank
Player
Team
UTR
DM  
ITA Rank
Player
Team
UTR
DM
W L W L
1 28 Katarina Jokic 
Lourdes Carle
Georgia 9 6
vs.
47 Ellyse Hamlin 
Kelly Chen
Duke 8 6
2   Vivian Wolff 
Elena Christofi
Georgia 16 1 24 Kaitlyn McCarthy 
Meible Chi
Duke 11 1
3   Meg Kowalski 
Marta Gonzalez
Georgia 12 5   Margaryta Bilokin 
Maria Mateas
Duke 14 5
Projected Singles Lineup
1 2 Katarina Jokic (So) Georgia 11.88 10 4
vs.
11 Maria Mateas (Fr) Duke 11.65 12 10
2 19 Marta Gonzalez (Jr) Georgia 11.48 9 9 33 Meible Chi (Jr) Duke 11.56 15 3
3 69 Lourdes Carle (Fr) Georgia 11.58 18 5 21 Kelly Chen (So) Duke 11.66 21 4
4 72 Vivian Wolff (So) Georgia 11.68 23 1   Kailtyn McCarthy (Sr) Duke 11.09 15 7
5   Elena Christofi (Jr) Georgia 11.44 16 2   Ellyse Hamlin (Sr) Duke 11.60 22 2
6 122 Meg Kowalski (Fr) Georgia 11.38 20 1   Margaryta Bilokin (Fr) Duke 11.26 22 6
Bench Players
7   Morgan Coppoc Georgia 10.47 0 0     Hannah Zhao Duke 9.66 5 3
8   Alee Clayton Georgia 10.06 0 0   Ema Lazic Duke 10.76 0 0
  
 

Prediction & Thoughts: Both teams were on court for a while on Friday with Georgia just 15 minutes short of 4 hours while Duke's match lasted right at 3 hours though didn't finish until midnight. Both teams are relatively young with Georgia starting four underclassmen while Duke starts three. Georgia's formula to advancing to the finals is going to be 1, 4, 5, and 6 singles while Duke is going to look to take 2, 3, and 5 while also planning on taking the doubles point - Georgia 4-3

 
 

#2 North Carolina vs. #3 Stanford (Saturday 2 pm ET)

Road to the Super Regionals
 
#2 North Carolina
  • def. South Carolina State 4-0
  • def. #32 Oklahoma 4-0
  • def. #15 Oklahoma State 4-2
  • def. #7 UCLA 4-1
 
#3 Stanford
  • def. New Mexico State 4-0
  • def. #31 Syracuse 4-1
  • def. #14 Kansas 4-3
  • def. #6 Pepperdine 4-1
 
NCAA Head-To-Head: Stanford 3-1
 
Most Recent Meeting: 2018 - Stanford 4-1 (NCAA Round of 16) - UNC's only win 2014 SF 
 
Notes:

North Carolina has won 24 straight matches and is making its 3rd semifinal appearance (2014/2010)

  • North Carolina is 31-1 in doubles (lost to UCLA) 
  • Jessie Aney and Alexa Graham have won 8 of their last 9 matches at No. 1 doubles 
  • Makenna Jones has won her last 8 completed matches
  • Alexa Graham has won 5 of her last 7 completed matches and is 24-2 on the year 
  • Sara Daavettila has won 12 of her last 13 completed matches
  • Cameron Morra has won her last 9 completed matches
  • Jessie Aney has won 8 of her last 9 completed matches 
  • Alle Sanford has won 6 of her last 7 completed matches (

Stanford has won 21 straight matches and is making its fourth straight appearance in the semifinals - won each of the three previous semis

  • Caroline Lampl is undefeated at 21-0 (hasn't dropped a set since March 30 vs. USC)
  • Michaela Gordon has won 7 of her last 8 completed matches and 12 of her last 13
  • Melissa Lord has won 13 of her last 14 matches (12 in straight sets)
  • Emily Arbuthnott has won 15 of her last 16 completed matches
  • Janice Shin has won her last 6 completed matches and 14 of her last 16
  • Emma Higuchi has won 13 of her last 14 
  • Niluka Madurawe has won 4 of her last 5 completed matches (loss vs. Kansas in R16)
 
ITA  Seed School W/L Dubs W/L UTR P6
Saturday, 2 p.m. ET @ Lake Nona
1 2 North Carolina 33-1 31-1 68.49
3 3 Stanford 26-1 22-5 68.39
Projected Doubles Lineup
Pos
ITA Rank
Player
Team
UTR
DM  
ITA Rank
Player
Team
UTR
DM
W L W L
1 2 Jessie Aney 
Alexa Graham
North Carolina 23 2
vs.
19 Caroline Lampl 
Kimberly Yee
Stanford 11 8
2 12 Makenna Jones 
Cameron Morra
North Carolina 13 3 29 Emily Arbuthnott 
Michaela Gordon
Stanford 16 3
3   Sara Daavettila 
Alexandra Sanford
North Carolina 10 5 57 Melissa Lord 
Niluka Madurawe
Stanford 17 5
Projected Singles Lineup
1 5 Makenna Jones (Jr) UNC 11.68 18 5
vs.
24 Michaela Gordon (So) Stanford 11.72 14 5
2 7 Alexa Graham (Jr) UNC 11.58 24 2 29 Melissa Lord (Sr) Stanford 11.58 19 4
3 20 Sara Daavettila (Jr) UNC 11.67 19 5 66 Caroline Lampl (Sr) Stanford 11.65 21 0
4 46 Cameron Morra (Fr) UNC 11.52 20 2 44 Emily Arbuthnott (Jr) Stanford 11.45 20 2
5   Jessie Aney (Sr) UNC 11.24 23 4 108 Janice Shin (So) Stanford 11.24 17 3
6   Alle Sanford (So) UNC 10.80 14 6 107 Emma Higuchi (Jr) Stanford 10.75 14 4
Bench Players
7   Chloe Ouellet-Pizer UNC 10.12 7 3     Niluka Madurawe Stanford 10.88 3 1
8   Sophia Patel UNC 10.08 3 1 119 Sara Choy Stanford 10.51 1 1
 
2018 NCAA Round of 16 Meeting:
 
#15 [15] Stanford 4, #1 [2] North Carolina 1
Head Coaches: Brian Kalbas (North Carolina) and Lele Forood (Stanford)
Doubles competition
1. #3 Arbuthnott/Gordon (STAN) def. #2 Aney/Graham (UNC) 6-4
2. #33 Daavettila/Sanford (UNC) def. #84 Lampl/Yee (STAN) 6-3
3. Marika Akkerman/Jones (UNC) def. Lord/Shin (STAN) 7-5
Singles competition
1. #2 Makenna Jones (UNC) vs. #15 Michaela Gordon (STAN) 7-6 (2), 1-2
2. #40 Melissa Lord (STAN) def. #26 Alle Sanford (UNC) 6-4, 6-1
3. #46 Sara Daavettila (UNC) vs. #93 Caroline Lampl (STAN) 6-4, 5-2
4. #43 Emily Arbuthnott (STAN) def. #95 Alexa Graham (UNC) 6-3, 6-1
5. #96 Janice Shin (STAN) def. #85 Jessie Aney (UNC) 6-3, 6-2
6. #102 Emma Higuchi (STAN) def. #119 Chloe Ouellet-Pizer (UNC) 6-1, 6-4
Match Notes
Stanford 21-3; National ranking #15
North Carolina 28-4; National ranking #1
Doubles: (2,1,3) Singles (2,6,4,5)
Match Played Indoors at Wake Forest
 
Prediction & Thoughts: This will be the third year in a row that these teams have met in the NCAA Tournament with Stanford ending UNC's season in each of those previous meetings. UNC had been untouchable in doubles until dropping the point against UCLA while Stanford has dropped the point two times in a row. This is truly a coin flip match with every court up for grabs. Both teams are extremely seasoned with UNC's Cameron Morra the only freshmen starter in the singles lineup so the biggest question is can UNC get over the hump against Stanford. I'm going to say no and roll with the Cardinal to take the doubles point and pick up singles wins from Arbuthnott, Shin, and Higuchi while UNC leads up top - Stanford 4-2
 
 

 

Read 610 times Last modified on Saturday, 18 May 2019 10:14

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