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2015 NCAA Championship Preview,
Oklahoma Sooners,
VirginiaIt’s all come down to this ladies and gentlemen – #1 Oklahoma takes on #3 Virginia for the 2015 Men’s NCAA National Championship.
Oklahoma is making its 2nd ever appearance in the finals after falling to USC 4-2 last year. Virginia is back in the finals for the 4th time in 5 years with the Cavaliers winning in its last appearance in 2013 over UCLA in a memorable 4-3 match.
[1] Oklahoma (30-2) vs. [3] Virginia (28-3) – Tuesday 1pm – Oklahoma is coming off a 4-3 win over #6 TCU Virginia beat #2 Baylor 4-2. Oklahoma won the regular season meeting in Norman 4-3 but it was close, close match that had several 3rd sets – for a refresher on how that match went you can read my recap.
Regular Season Meeting:
#1 Oklahoma 4, #7 Virginia 3
March 10, 2015 – Norman OK (Headington Family Tennis Center)
Doubles (Order of Finish: 2, 1)
1. #19 Luca Corinteli/Ryan Shane (UVA) def. #5 Axel Alvarez/Dane Webb (OU) 8-7(6)
2. Thai-Son Kwiatkowski/JC Aragone (UVA) def. #53 Andrew Harris/Alex Ghilea (OU) 8-6
3. Mitchell Frank/Collin Altamirano (UVA) vs. Spencer Papa/Florin Bragusi (OU) 7-5 DNF
Singles Order of Finish (4,2,1,5,3,6)
1. #19 Andrew Harris (OU 14.71) def. #27 Mitchell Frank (UVA 14.88) 3-6, 6-3, 6-4
2. #7 Axel Alvarez (OU 14.50) def. #3 Ryan Shane (UVA 14.56) 6-4, 7-5
3. #26 Dane Webb (OU 14.20) def. #6 Thai-Son Kwiatkowski (UVA 14.83) 3-6, 7-5, 6-3
4, #70 Collin Altamirano (UVA 14.81) def. Spencer Papa (OU 13.91) 6-4, 6-4
5. Alexander Ritschard (UVA 13.91) def. #53 Alex Ghilea (OU 14.16) 2-6, 6-3, 6-3
6. Florin Bragusi (OU 13.52) def. JC Aragone (UVA 13.80) 6-7(9), 6-2, 6-3
Doubles Records: Oklahoma 18-13, Virginia 27-4
UTR Starting 6 Power Rating: Oklahoma 87, Virginia 87
The UTR Power 6 is the combined UTRs of the starting 6 (rounded to a whole #). An individual win/loss to anyone with a UTR difference of 1.0 or greater would be considered an upset.
FYI, the number beside the player’s school is the player’s Universal Tennis Rating as of May 15th. For more details about UTR check out their website.
Projected Singles Lineups with UTRs in ( ):
1. #1 Axel Alvarez (OU 15.18) vs. #8 Ryan Shane (VA 14.88)
2. #7 Andrew Harris (OU 15.05) vs. #20 Mitchell Frank (VA 14.53)
3. #44 Dane Webb (OU 14.21) vs. #77 Collin Altamirano (VA 14.72)
4. #103 Alex Ghilea (OU 14.41) vs. #19 Thai-Son Kwiatkowski (VA 14.77)
5. Spencer Papa (OU 13.90) vs. Alexander Ritschard (VA 14.07)
6. Florin Bragusi (OU 13.64) vs. J.C. Aragone (VA 14.08)
Dual-Match Singles Records – # in ( ) is W-L vs. ranked:
1. Alvarez 25-1 (20-1) vs.
Shane 20-6 (13-5) 2. Harris 18-6 (15-6) vs.
Frank 17-3 (12-3) 3. Webb 15-9 (6-9) vs.
Altamirano 19-3 (4-2) 4. Ghilea 20-5 (2-2) vs.
Kwiatkowski 22-4 (2-3) 5. Papa 13-10 (0-7) vs.
Ritschard 11-3 (3-1) 6. Bragusi 12-3 vs.
Aragone 23-3 (0-1)
#1 singles – Alvarez has won 25 of his last 26 and is coming off a white-knuckling 7-5, 7-6 match clincher over TCU’s #49 Nick Chappell while Shane has won 11 of 13 and is coming off a HUGE 6-3, 6-4 win over #2 Julian Lenz. Alvarez won the regular season meeting 6-4, 7-5 but both guys are playing so well right now. The question is can Ryan Shane bring his A+ game for a 2nd day in a row against an even better player than Julian Lenz? I’m going to say no and take “The Annihilator” – Prediction: Alvarez (OU) in 3
#2 singles – Harris has won 8 of his last 10 but is coming off a crippling 6-7, 6-2, 6-0 loss to #59 Guillermo Nunez in a match that had Harris down and out early in the second set with the heat really getting to him. Frank has won 8 of his last 10 completed matches and is coming off an extremely hard fought 6-0, 2-6, 7-5 win over #35 Tony Lupieri. Harris won the regular season meeting 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 but I just can’t see the same result this time around. Frank is playing much better than earlier in the season while Harris isn’t quite as sharp plus his match with Nunez totally wiped him out. Frank may have been on the court for 15 minutes longer than Harris yesterday but he barely broke a sweat. Prediction: Frank (UVA) in 2.
#3 singles – Webb has dropped 8 of his last 11 after falling 6-2, 6-0 to #39 Cameron Norrie while Altamirano has won 4 of his last 6 after defeating #58 Max Tchoutakian 4-6, 6-4, 6-4. Webb has only won 7 games in the last 2 matches but maybe, just maybe he’s been saving himself for this match. For whatever reason, I think Dane stays in this match long enough to force some mistakes from Altamirano and I think Webb wins. Prediction: Webb (OU) in 3
#4 singles – Ghilea has won 6 of his last 9 and 11 of 14 but he’s coming off a disappointing 6-1, 6-4 loss to TCU’s Facundo Lugones while Kwiatkowski saw his 11-match winning streak get snapped in a 6-3, 4-6, 6-2 loss to Diego Galeano in a match where both Galeano’s pace of play and the humidity did a huge number on him. Neither guy has lost 2 in a row this season so something has to give here. This is another tough one to call but I like the “The Machine” to squeeze it out – Prediction: Ghilea (OU) in 3
#5 singles – Papa has won 3 of his last 4 and is coming off a 6-0, 6-1 thumping of TCU’s Arnau Dachs while Ritschard has won his last 6 and he led Baylor’s Mate Zsiga 5-4 in the 3rd in a match that went unfinished. Papa will have to play like he did against Dachs to win this one but I think Ritschard is going to be ready for the challenge. Prediction: Ritschard (UVA) in 2
#6 singles – Bragusi has won 5 of his last 7 after beating TCU’s Will Stein 6-3, 7-6 while Aragone has won 17 in a row after beating Felipe Rios 6-3, 7-5. Bragusi beat Aragone 6-7, 6-2, 6-3 back on March 10th but I think Aragone turns the tables this time and make it 18 in a row. Prediction: Aragone (UVA) in 3
This Oklahoma team that has found ways to win week in and week out with different guys stepping up each match and they’re going to need someone big to step up tomorrow. I like OU in doubles at #1 and #3 and I’ll go with Alvarez, Webb, and Ghilea in singles while I like Frank, Ritschard, and Aragone for UVA. Prediction: Oklahoma 4-3
ill get 4-3 UVa, cause they ve a shot in doubles and CA can win vs Webb