I’ve previewed all the 1st and 2nd round matches for this coming weekend; now I’ll take a more in-depth look at the top 8 seeds in the men’s field. I’ll list what I think are each team’s positives, negatives/concerns, and reasonable expectations along with potential roadblocks.
I put this out last Thursday but have updated the records and #s – everything else is still the same.
#1 Oklahoma (26-2)
Likely Road To National Championship – #16 UCLA, Georgia/Texas, Illinois/TCU/Wake Forest, Baylor/Virginia/USC.
Positives:
- Axel Alvarez & Andrew Harris – best 1-2 punch in the game with #1 Axel Alvarez and #7 Andrew Harris a combined 42-4 in dual match play. Alvarez is undefeated and Harris’s 4 losses came at #1. Knowing you have an almost guaranteed 2 points at 1 and 2 is huge.
- Florin Bragusi – been Mr. Clutch this season winning the deciding match against the former Mr. Clutch Ohio State’s Kevin Metka, Virginia’s J.C. Aragone, and Baylor’s Felipe Rios. He also clinched against Rios in another match that was still tight and did the same against North Carolina’s Oystein Steiro.
- Alex Ghilea – has been Mr. Clutch #2 winning the deciding match against Texas’s George Goldhoff and Baylor’s Mate Zsiga. Ghilea also clinched against TCU’s Arnau Dachs and USC’s Max De Vroome in matches that were coming down the wire.
- Confidence – this team knows how to win when it counts.
- Doubles (15-13) has been suspect though John Roddick made a lineup shift prior to the Big 12 Tournament that paid immediate dividends. He split up the #11 doubles team in the country and moved Dane Webb to #2 with Spencer Papa and moved Axel Alvarez to #3 with Jose Salazar. If these new teams can hold their own then doubles won’t be a negative anymore
- Dane Webb – what was an automatic point earlier in the year is anything but because Webb has dropped 5 of his last 8 with all 5 losses in straight sets.
- Spencer Papa -11-9 on the year but has dropped 4 of his last 6 and is also 0-7 against ranked opposition.
Comment – It’s National Championship or bust for this OU team that has been ranked #1 virtually the entire season – anything else would be a major disappointment. Time and time again OU has had its back against the wall and came out on top in situations where I didn’t think they would. The first two rounds will be a breeze but they’ll face some serious challenges from the Round of 16 going forward. If they keep dropping the doubles point and #3 and #5 singles they’ll be going home a lot sooner than later (pardon the pun). I could see Oklahoma winning it all and I could see a quarterfinal exit against Georgia or Texas.
#2 Baylor (23-5)
Likely Road To National Championship – #18 South Florida, #7 USC, Virginia/Texas A&M, Oklahoma/Illinois/Georgia
Positives:
- Home court advantage – yes they did lose twice to Oklahoma at home but having a large rowdy crowd usually helps you win a match or two that you might normally lose.
- Doubles (25-2) – starting out with the 1-0 lead just about every time is a nice plus.
- Mate Zsiga – won 11 of his last 12 including 2 wins over Spencer Papa and a win over USC’s Max De Vroome. The early season collapses against Ghilea and Vukic seem like a distance memory.
- Julian Lenz – been pretty stout against everyone not named Axel Alvarez, Nik Scholtz, and Nicolas Alvarez. Fortunately for him the only 1 of those 3 that he’ll likely see again would be Axel Alvarez.
- Familiar foes – BU has already beat it’s likely quarterfinal (USC) and semifinal (UVA) opponents so from a mental aspect that’s a good thing.
Concerns:
- Tony Lupieri – just 9-9 on the year and he’s lost his last 4. He had two very nice wins at the National Indoors against Thai-Son Kwiatkowski and Raphael Hemmeler but it’s been tough sledding since then.
- #4 singles – Outside of #2 this is BU’s 2nd worst spot with its guys going a combined 16-7 though they are just 7-6 against top 25 teams. Diego Galeano’s wins last weekend over Facundo Lugones and Alex Ghilea are definitely a positive sign that BU hopes will continue over the next 2 weeks.
- Fear of Oklahoma – BU has already lost to them 4 times – what’s going to be different this time around to change the result?
Comment – Matt Knoll has built this team for a championship run and anything less would be disappointing especially with Baylor being the host. The road to the finals won’t be easy with a potential quarterfinal match against the defending champs (USC) followed by a semifinal match against what some consider to be the best team out there (Virginia). Baylor has already beat USC once and Virginia twice so they’ll know going in that they can win but the pressure will be on playing in front of a large crowd. Baylor needs to continue winning the doubles point against the big hitters because if they drop it and then lose at say 2 and 4 it’s going to be a lot to ask to sweep the rest.
#3 Virginia (25-3)
Likely Road To National Championship – #17 Columbia, Texas A&M/Ohio State, Baylor/USC, Oklahoma/Illinois/TCU/Georgia
Positives:
- Doubles (25-3) – been great against everyone but Baylor.
- Singles strength – when a guy with a 18-6 singles record (Shane) has the worst winning percentage of your starting 6 that’s saying something
- Mitchell Frank playing at #2 – can’t think of any other current player with the accolades that he’s chalked up over the last 4 years (2X ITA All American Champ, ITA Intercollegiate Indoors Champ, clinched 2013 NCAA Team Championship, 9-1 record in the NCAAs) and he’s playing at #2.
- Collin Altamirano – 3-0 against Oklahoma & Baylor (beat Tchoutakian, Galeano, Papa)
- Thai-Son Kwiatkowski playing at #4 – pretty good when the guy playing at #4 was ranked #1 just a few months ago. TSK has won 13 of his last 14.
Concerns:
- Injuries – Mitchell Frank missed the ACC Tournament Finals against Wake Forest with back spasms and Alexander Ritschard missed a good chunk of the season with an assortment of injuries with the latest being tendinitis in the wrist (per the Daily Progress).
- Baylor – UVA has played them twice and lost both times.
- Singles records against Oklahoma & Baylor
- Shane 1-2 (lost to Lenz and Alvarez; beat Tchoutakian)
- Frank 1-2 (lost to Lenz and Harris; beat Lupieri)
- Kwiatkowski 0-2 (lost to Lupieri and Webb)
- Aragone 1-2 (lost to Zsiga and Bragusi; beat Schneider)
Comment – Virginia won its only National Title when it was a #2 seed but hasn’t faired as well when it’s been the #1 so being a #3 seed should suit UVA just fine. I think Virginia is flying under the radar this year and if they can find a way to get past Baylor in the semifinals they just might take it all. In my opinion they really don’t have any weaknesses it’s just a matter of how they handle the big moments. A few guys didn’t handle the big moments very well against OU and BU – they’ll have a chance to make amends next week in Waco.
#4 Illinois (27-4)
Likely Road To National Championship – #13 North Carolina, TCU/Wake Forest, Oklahoma/Georgia, Baylor/Virginia/USC.
Positives:
- Peaking at the right time – aside from the stunning loss at Minnesota they’ve won all other recent (last 45 days) matches in blowout fashion
- Strong at 1 through 5 singles:
- Aleks Vukic – team best 22 wins with only 2 losses – won 20 of his last 21
- Jared Hiltzik – went 20-2 during dual match play and won 8 of his last 9
- Aron Hiltzik – went 17-3 and won his last 15 – had only dropped 4 sets since early February but did drop 1 in the NCAA 1st round and 1 in the 2nd round.
- Tim Kopinski – went 18-4 and won 6 of his last 7.
- Farris Gosea – went 13-5 and won his last 8
- Confidence – won the Big 10 Tournament by beating its long time nemesis Ohio State for a 3rd time. Illini also beat Baylor in Waco in the season opener.
Concerns:
- Doubles – went 4-11 against top 40 teams
- #6 singles – by far its weakest spot with Matsuya, Bazarnik, Guignon, and Page going 17-8 overall but just 4-7 against top 25 teams.
- Tim Kopinski vs. ranked players – great singles record however he lost his last 3 against ranked opponents – TCU’s Nunez beat him 2 & 0, Texas’s Glasspool beat him 2 & 4, Georgia’s Pasha beat him 5 & 5. Also lost to unranked Matt Frost of Drake in the 2nd round.
- Rugged Path Ahead (potential opponents from R16 going forward)
- North Carolina – Illinois beat its potential Round of 16 opponent 4-3 earlier in the year in a match that UNC played without its #2 Ronnie Schneider though Esben Hess-Olesen did play at #3. Farris Gosea came back from 5-2 down in the 3rd to beat Brayden Schnur to clinch.
- TCU – Horned Frogs roughed up Illinois 4-0 though it was at the end of a brutal 3 day stretch and Illinois was playing without Farris Gosea.
- Oklahoma/Georgia/Texas – Illini beat Texas in Austin 4-2, lost to Georgia 4-2 in Chicago, and didn’t face OU.
Comment – Winning on consecutive days earlier in the year against Texas and Texas A&M showed that the team can win tough matches away from home. I’d be surprised if Illinois didn’t at least make the semifinals because UNC’s situation at #6 isn’t good plus I don’t think Vukic loses to Kelly a 2nd time. I’d like the Illini’s chances much better this time around against TCU and even more against Wake. Getting past the semis would take a big effort all around.
#5 TCU (23-7)
Likely Road To National Championship – #12 Wake Forest, Illinois, Oklahoma/Georgia, Baylor/Virginia/USC.
Positives
- Guillermo Nunez – 19-1 dual-match record and his only loss came when a 10 point tiebreak was played in lieu of a 3rd set.
- Cameron Norrie – 7-0 record since being moved to #3 singles with wins over Tchoutakian, Berkowicz, Rinderknech, Kadhe, and Pramming.
- Senior Leadership – Nick Chappell, Facundo Lugones, Arnau Dachs, and Will Stein are all seniors so over the last 4 years they’ve experienced it all and seen the program rise from a 9-15 record their freshmen year to a 23-7 record this year.
Concerns:
- Doubles – just 16-11 overall and 4-9 against top 25 opponents
- #1 singles – 1-9 record against current top 20 teams
- 4-7 record against other top 16 seeds
- #4 – #6 singles – TCU is good at these spots but not as dominant as some of its potential opponents.
Comment – TCU is a good team that is capable of pulling off an upset or two but they are probably the longest shot out the top 8 seeds. TCU did lose 7 matches this year which is 3 more than most of the other top 8. Wake Forest beat them earlier in the year without Noah Rubin in the lineup so that possible rematch is going to be a huge test in itself. TCU will likely need to win 2 out of 3 at 4-6 singles to keep advancing.
#6 Texas A&M (23-4)
Likely Road To National Championship: #11 Ohio State, #3 Virginia, #2 Baylor, #1 Oklahoma
Positives:
- Doubles – 22-5 record (4th best winning pct of teams in the draw)
- Freshman firepower – “Artillery” Arthur Rinderknech, AJ Catanzariti, & Jordi Arconada are 43-11 on the year.
- TCU, Illinois, & Georgia are on the other side of the draw – why does that matter? They are the only 3 teams to beat Texas A&M this year.
- Harrison Adams – after a brutal start with several lopsided losses Adams is finally coming around and he won 5 of his last 6.
Concerns:
- #3 Virginia – A&M will likely be underdogs in doubles and in at least 5 singles spots
- Unfinished Matches – Jeremy Efferding had 8 matches in a row go unfinished up until his last one against Austin Smith. Shane Vinsant had 6 of his last 8 matches go unfinished.
Comment – Texas A&M has enough power to get past Ohio State but getting past Virginia is another story. They’d have to pull off multiple upsets in singles plus take the doubles point and Virginia is no slouch in doubles either. This is where all those unfinished matches come in to play because when your not used to finishing a 2 to 3 hour singles match what’s going to happen when it comes down to your court. Efferding and Vinsant regrouped very well after the rain delay against Georgia in the SEC Tournament but you have to wonder what happens if the match isn’t delayed.
#7 USC (24-4)
Likely Road To National Championship – #10 Duke, #2 Baylor, #3 Virginia, #1 Oklahoma
Positives:
- Tons of big match experience
- Pedigree – been the most dominant team over the last 5 years
- Strong at 3 through 6 singles
- Eric Johnson – went 20-2 during dual-match play and he’s already beat Stanford’s #3 twice and Baylor’s #3 once.
- Jonny Wang – went 18-3 and has won 16 in a row.
- Max De Vroome – went 17-3 and has won 14 of last 16.
- Nick Crystal – went 18-2 won 8 of last 9
Concerns:
- Yannick Hanfmann – what’s the heck has happened here? Was one of the premier players in the game and has just fallen off the map. 10-8 record and had lost 5 straight before the NCAAs and 8 of his last 10 and most of the losses haven’t been close.
- Post Season Roberto Quiroz – regular season Quiroz is great; postseason Quiroz not as great. Last year Roberto got thumped in his final 2 matches against Dane Webb and Ryan Shane and the year before he was beat by Connor Smith.
- Doubles – only 17-11 on the year
Comment – A 24-4 record is nothing to sneeze about but it’s not what we’ve come accustomed to over the last several years. Hanfmann’s struggles at #1 have been baffling as was the loss to Tulsa. It just seems like SC doesn’t have that same edge that they’ve had in years past and maybe all the winning is what has dulled that edge . If USC is going to make a run they need someone to fill the Mr. Clutch role that Steve Johnson, Daniel Nguyen, and Ray Sarmiento assumed over the last 5 years. USC can’t expect to win at 3 through 6 every match so it’s going to take Hanfmann and Quiroz to assert themselves against some tough customers to keep SC alive. There isn’t a result that would surprise with USC – I could see them winning the national title while at the same time I could see them getting bounced by Stanford in the round of 16.
#8 Georgia (23-4)
Likely Road To National Championship – #9 Texas, #1 Oklahoma, Illinois/TCU/Wake Forest, Baylor/Virginia/USC.
Positives:
- Austin Smith/Ben Wagland – #1 doubles team in the country with a 16-2 record
- Wayne Montgomery – went 14-3 with a win over Farris Gosea and a win in the fall over Axel Alvarez
- Ben Wagland – went 10-5 and won his last 7 at #4 singles. Wagland struggled mightily last year and earlier this year but his recent results suggest that he may be a lot closer to the version of himself that played #1 his freshman year.
- Paul Oosterbaan – went 13-3 and finished on a 12-match winning streak
Concerns:
- #2 and #3 doubles – still trying to find the right combos – looks like they’ll be 2 new pairings for the NCAAs
- Nick Wood – went 15-6 and had some good wins but also had some lopsided losses – was 6-6 against opponents from top 25 teams.
- Nathan Pasha – went 14-5 but lost 3 of his last 4 in the regular season and went 4-5 against opponents from top 25 teams. Pasha also had some difficulty closing out opponents that based off rankings you wouldn’t have expected.
Comment – Winning the doubles point from the round of 16 and going forward is essential to Georgia’s NCAA hopes. Georgia has enough quality players to find 3 wins against anybody but finding a 4th against Texas, Oklahoma, etc. is a whole different story. Georgia has the talent to make a run but they’ll need everybody playing at their absolute best.
No, the wide-openness refers to the top 12 or so teams.
does anyone think that the fairly straightforward nature of the 1st 2 rounds lessens the "wide-openness" of the national championship?
You're right, Hanfmann has been one of the best, and most clutch players, since he's been in college. That's why it's so startling to see his relatively poor results this Spring. I saw him play, and win, in the Indian Wells qualies this March. He looked good to me, which makes his college play even more inexplicable. Maybe he's suffering from a form of senioritis, where you have checked out of school because you're ready for the next phase of your life. He certainly didn't look injured in Indian Wells, and unless he picked up one since then to affect his play, I don't think it's a physical issue. So the questions in my mind are: if it's a motivational issue, will the ncaa's inspire him and will he be able to immediately flick on the switch? It seems from Peter Smith's comments after the match that not only are they very capable of flicking on the switch, they already have.<br /><br />Agree with you on Quiroz as well. Which brings me to the real MVP and heart of this team: Eric Johnson. Happened to see him at the Indoors this year and he was ferocious. He'll tear your heart out if you're not ready. Duke's Hemmeler will have his hands full and better be ready for an extremely physical match. But Hemmeler's no slouch in the toughness department either. I heard he cramped up, threw up, during the third set of his match with ronnie schneider. He won it 6-0.<br /><br />Despite your pick Stanford being beaten, I don't think USC will get an easy romp in the round of sixteen. I really think Duke has a shot at upsetting USC. Caught a bit of Alvarez's match against Fawcett and he was relentless and consistent. Broke him down completely. Alvarez can go toe to toe with anyone. The question mark about him is his health. How will his body hold up? And Duke has proved they are a solid, tough team at home, their problems have come on the road. And injuries have also bedeviled them this year, like that loss to G Tech when Mengel and Alvarez sat despite the team losing the doubles point. <br /><br />Just one of a number of really interesting toss up matches coming up. Looking forward to this year's NCAA's.
Dont sleep on Wake. They can win dubs, then win at both #1 & 2 against anyone, so any of 3-6 getting a win and they can keep it rolling.
Give Hanfmann credit. Most clutch player at NCAAs last year and clinched the finals as a freshman. He's playing better don't be surprised to see him win some more. I see USC flying under the rador and getting a big upset or 2. Can't say they'd for sure win but they're experienced and have the talent
I agree about the wide open. I think Oklahoma is a deserving 1 seed but I have never thought they were a juggernaut. I see at least 5 teams with a true legitimate chance to win it. I also think as the season played out, the seedings were dead on as to what they should be.,
Great analysis, and I would agree with your conclusions. It's about as wide open as I can remember over the past five or six years. It's gonna depend on mental toughness in the end