If the committee follows my final ranking projections and uses H2H for adjacent teams this is what the field could look like at 5:30pm eastern. Tune in to find out – NCAA Selection Show.
Seeds 1-16:
1. Oklahoma
2. Baylor
3. Virginia
4. Illinois
5. TCU
6. Texas A&M
7. USC
8. Georgia
9. Texas
10. Duke
11. Ohio State
12. Wake Forest
13. North Carolina
14. Ole Miss
15. Virginia Tech
16. UCLA
17-32 – #2 seed:
Columbia
South Florida
Mississippi State
Florida
Texas Tech
San Diego
Stanford
Vanderbilt
Minnesota
Cal
Florida State
LSU
Tulsa
Northwestern
Oklahoma State
Drake – won H2H over Louisviile
33-48 – #3 seed:
Louisville
Harvard
Notre Dame
Princeton
NC State
New Mexico
Pepperdine
Georgia Tech
Tennessee
San Diego State
Denver
UC Santa Barbara
Texas A&M CC
Troy
UTSA
Boise State
49-64 – #4 seed:
East Tennessee State
FGCU
George Washington
St. John’s
Green Bay
Buffalo
Idaho
Winthrop
Wiliam & Mary
Marist
Bryant
Eastern Kentucky
Navy
New Mexico State
South Carolina State
Alabama State
31 Automatic Qualifiers:
American Athletic Conference – #1 South Florida
Atlantic Coast Conference – #1 Virginia
Atlantic Sun Conference – #1 Florida Gulf Coast (FCGU)
Atlantic 10 Conference – #4 George Washington
Big East Conference – #1 St. John’s
Big Sky Conference – #2 Idaho
Big South Conference – #3 Winthrop
Big Ten Conference – #1 Illinois
Big 12 Conference – #1 Oklahoma
Big West Conference – #3 UC Santa Barbara
Colonial Athletic Association – #3 William & Mary
Conference USA – #3 University of Texas San Antonio (UTSA)
Horizon League – #1 Green Bay
The Ivy League – Columbia
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference – #2 Marist
Mid-American Conference – #4 Buffalo
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference – #1 South Carolina State
Missouri Valley Conference – #1 seed Drake
Mountain West Conference – #5 Boise State
Northeast Conference – #1 Bryant
Ohio Valley Conference – #1 Eastern Kentucky
Pac-12 Conference – #2 USC
Patriot League – #2 seed Navy
Southeastern Conference – #2 Texas A&M
Southern Conference – #1 East Tennessee State
Southland Conference – #1 Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Southwestern Athletic Conference – #3 Alabama State
The Summit League – #1 Denver
Sun Belt Conference – #1 Troy
West Coast Conference – #1 San Diego
Western Athletic Conference – #1 New Mexico State
disagree to a point look at Tennessee, who did they beat? Ga Tech early in the season, who decided to get on a roll late and sneak into the tournament. South Carolina who faltered down the stretch. The SEC gets the teams in just due to being the SEC and win or lose their teams never fall much in rankings but can rise like crazy.
This is flawed logic. The way the committee selects teams is fair in every way. Each conference winning team deserves the chance to play in the post-season. Calling them 'awful' is ridiculous as many of these teams have solid wins on their resume. And teams that just missed can surely look back at certain spots in the season and see where they missed opportunities that might have gotten them in the tournament had they performed better.
Dominik – Agreed about the awful (conference-winning) teams that will make for first-round fodder. It's actually very unfair to some of the higher #2 seeds who have brutal first round matches and, if they win, have to play a #1/host that won't have broken a sweat the day before.
Ridiculous. I cannot believe the horrendous teams that get in and we do not get in.
If the gap was only maybe 0.3 or less I'd say it possible – but with me showing it at around .75 I'd say it's unlikely that I'd be off that much.<br /><br />It's always possible that the committee looks at other factors other than rankings when trying to select the last few teams – strength of schedule, results against common opponents, maybe even how a team finished.
what are the chance your projection is off and Tulane does get in?? We deserve it I think. very good season, better than some others that are in…
They should though it's possible they'll play each other in the 1st round somewhere – maybe Illinois.
Bobby — do you think Drake will be a 2 seed and jump Louisville since they beat Louisville head to head?