Since it’s the week of the National Team Indoors the ITA doesn’t publish its rankings so I’ll give you a couple of different versions to mull over while we wait for the NTI draw to come out on Tuesday night.
First I’ll start off with what I think the ITA Top 20 will look like based off last week’s rankings and taking into account any results from last week. Secondly, I’ll have my own personal top 20 based off what I’ve seen so far. Then, I’ll have what the computer top 20 would look like if each team’s best 2 wins were used (first computer rankings in 2 weeks will use the best 4 wins). Lastly I’ll show you what the UTR Top 20 looks like.
Projected ITA Top 20 [previous]:
1. Virginia [1]
[2] Texas A&M vs. [15] Columbia
The toughest thing to figure out is how far the voters will drop Baylor and Oklahoma. Any logical person couldn’t possibly have Baylor inside the top 10 but it’ll be interesting to see if they fall lower than Georgia and Illinois and maybe even undefeated Texas Tech. Since the voters dropped Oklahoma down three spots after losing at home to Wake Forest I figure they might drop four spots after losing to North Carolina because a two loss Sooners can’t be ahead of a Wake team that just beat them. The 1 vs. 16 and 2 vs. 15 matchups are pretty much locked and loaded because UVA and A&M will be #1 and #2 and Columbia and San Diego will be the two lowest ranked teams.
Here are is my top 25 based off what I’ve seen so far – I have notable wins and all losses listed for reference. The number inside [ ] is where I had them last week.
1. Virginia (4-0) [1] – win over Kentucky – big week for the defending champs with my #2 UCLA coming to town for a Tuesday night match and then Virginia hosts the National Team Indoors this weekend.
2. UCLA (5-0) [4] – wins over Georgia, San Diego, Georgia Tech, SMU. Bruins have a chance to pick up a huge road win on Tuesday against #1 Virginia. They’ll stay in town all the way through the weekend for the NTIs so they’ll be as accustomed to the playing conditions as all the other strong indoor teams. If they beat Virginia on Tuesday I’d consider them the favorites but even if they lose I’d still expect to see them in the semis.
3. Ohio State (8-0) [3] – wins over Virginia Tech, Texas, Denver. All 8 matches have been shutouts – Buckeyes will be a serious contender at the NTIs and I’d consider anything less than a semifinal showing as a big disappointment. I think the roster is there to compete for the title.
4.Texas A&M (9-0) [5] – wins over Baylor, South Florida, Florida State. Aggies played well in a win over Baylor in Waco then won a closer than expected match with Florida State and a not as close as expected match against South Florida. Playing indoors has never been an A&M strong suit but they’ve got enough talent to make a run to the semis.
5. North Carolina (6-0) [6] – wins over Oklahoma, Illinois, NC State, & Drake. Tar Heels picked up a huge win over Oklahoma on Sunday and will be a tough out for several teams this weekend at the NTIs. Need to shore up #6 singles and get Schnur back to 100% to make it past the quarters.
6. TCU (3-1) [2] – wins over Oklahoma State & Texas; 4-2 loss to Cal – Horned Frogs won a hard fought match over Stanford but got taken out by a hungry Cal. I think the loss was more of a blip on the radar than a sign of things to come.
7. Oklahoma State (6-1) [7] – wins over Wake Forest, Minnesota, at Memphis, Arkansas; 4-3 loss at TCU – Pokes picked up an impressive 5-2 road win at Arkansas on Sunday and this week they go to SMU and then visit the unpredictable Tulsa.
8. Wake Forest (8-1) [8] – wins over Oklahoma, Tennessee (2X), South Carolina; 4-2 loss at Oklahoma State. I’m very interested to see how the team does this weekend at the NTIs because they’ll likely face someone like Oklahoma or Georgia in the opening round then potentially Virginia in the quarters.
9. Georgia (3-1) [10]- wins over UCSB, Memphis, Georgia Tech; 6-1 loss at UCLA – Bulldogs welcomed back Nick Wood to the lineup against Georgia Tech but Walker Duncan may not be ready to go by this weekend. They are looking at a likely first round match against either USC, Oklahoma, or Wake Forest.
10. Illinois (5-1) [12]- wins at Duke, Northwestern, Notre Dame (2X); 4-0 loss at North Carolina – Illini probably looking at TCU or USC in the opening round of the NTIs – I think they could beat USC but TCU would pose some matchup issues.
11. Texas Tech (10-0) [14] – wins over New Mexico, Ole Miss, Florida, Arizona – Red Raiders are going to be looking at a tough assignment at the NTIs with UCLA or Ohio State the likely opening round opponent. While I don’t think they can beat either of those two I can see them beating several team in the consolation rounds.
12. Cal (4-1) [23] – wins over TCU, at Texas, San Francisco; 4-3 loss at Tulsa – The Bears finally showed everyone what they were made of when they swept TCU and Texas in the Big 12/Pac-12 Showdown. It’s still a shame that they can’t play at the NTIs since the snow kept them from traveling to Durham – would be nice if they were allowed to travel and play teams in the consolation rounds.
13. Oklahoma (3-2) [9] – 5-2 loss to Wake Forest, 4-3 loss to North Carolina – Despite losing to North Carolina on Sunday, OU got some good news with the return of Andrew Harris (knee tendinitis) to its doubles lineup though he still may not be ready for singles at the NTIs. OU will likely be looking at either USC or a rematch with Wake Forest in the opening round of the NTIs – this team isn’t going to repeat as NTI champs but if they could go 2-1 this weekend I’d consider that a huge positive.
14. USC (5-0) [13] – wins over Florida & Tulane – USC won a pair of tighter than expected matches against Loyola Marymount and Grand Canyon though a few starters sat out. USC is probably looking at Oklahoma or Georgia to open the NTIs with both winnable matches but it’ll take strong play from the bottom of the lineup to get through to the next round. I’d say the quarterfinals is the ceiling for this team.
15. Columbia (4-0) [15] – wins over Stanford, Minnesota, North Florida – Big, big test this weekend for Lions with an opening round match against Texas A&M an almost certainty. Columbia actually matches up pretty well with A&M and I wouldn’t be shocked if they found a way to pull the upset. I don’t see them making it past the quarterfinals but a 2-1 weekend is possible.
16. South Florida (3-1) [16] – wins over Florida State, LSU, Minnesota – Bulls routed Minnesota on Friday but got out classed by Texas A&M on Sunday with its 3 points coming after A&M had already clinched the win. USF is most likely going to face either North Carolina or Ohio State in the first round of the NTIs with a win considered a long shot.
17. Northwestern (7-1) [20] – wins at Duke, at Louisville, Notre Dame, Tulsa, Rice; 4-0 loss at Illinois. Wildcats swept Rice and Cornell over the weekend and will face another test when they welcome in an up and coming Kentucky on Saturday.
18. San Diego (4-1) [18] – wins over UC Irvine, Vanderbilt, at Duke; 7-0 loss at UCLA – I was a little surprised that the Toreros got blanked by UCLA though they did force a third set in three matches. San Diego is all but locked in to face #1 Virginia on Friday so the best case scenario would be to win a few consolation matches.
19. Ole Miss (3-1) [24] – win at Texas and Baylor; 4-0 loss to Texas Tech – Rebels came from behind to scratch out a win at Baylor but the high from that win will ware off by the time they step on the court again in two weeks. They should have tried to line up someone like Florida State or Oklahoma State to fill the hole because both of those teams are off for two weeks as well.
20. Virginia Tech (4-2) [19] – wins over Alabama & Boise State; 4-0 loss to Stanford, 4-0 loss at Ohio State. The Hokies may have got shutout by Ohio State but they were in winning positions on two courts and were even in the third set on the other so that may have been a 4-3 final if everything got played out. The Hokies have almost a month before they open ACC play so now is a good time to get everyone rested.
21. Baylor (5-2) [11]- wins over Oregon & UC Irvine; 4-2 loss to Texas A&M, 4-3 loss to Ole Miss – The Bears took it on the chin twice last week and are looking at a tough weekend coming up with UCLA potentially its first round opponent at the NTIs. This team still has some talent but if everyone doesn’t elevate its game it could be an 0-3 weekend.
22. Florida State (6-2) [22] – wins over Mississippi State & Alabama; 4-3 loss at South Florida, 4-3 loss at Texas A&M – The Seminoles gave Texas A&M all it wanted on Friday and it appeared the match would come down to a third set at #1 but Ben Lock lost the final four games to drop the match. FSU doesn’t have another big match for almost three weeks when they go to Gainesville to play Florida.
23. Florida (3-2) [21] – win at Texas; 4-3 losses to Texas Tech and USC – Gators were idle last week but they did line up a match with Furman on Saturday. The following weekend they go to Columbus to face Ohio State.
24. Stanford (4-3) [17]- wins over Virginia Tech & San Diego State; 4-3 loss at Columbia, 4-3 loss at Texas, 4-2 loss to TCU. The Cardinal left it all out on the court on Saturday in a tough, tough 4-2 loss to TCU but unfortunately they couldn’t get past Texas on Sunday losing 4-3. This team is so close to getting over the hump but just when they reach the top they tumble back down. They have two weeks to prepare for a visit from Bay Area rival Cal.
25. Oregon (8-1) [25] – wins over UCSB, Old Dominion, Denver, at Nebraska; 4-2 loss at Baylor – Ducks took care of Northern Arizona and Louisville over the weekend and will head to LA on Saturday to face a Loyola Marymount team that challenged both USC and Pepperdine over the weekend.
Just on the outside looking in: NC State, Washington, Harvard
Computer Top 20 (based off 2 best wins)
1. Texas A&M 87.20
20. Georgia 37.73
Universal Tennis Rating (UTR) Power 6 Team Ratings
20. Illinois 82
Agreed. They could have created interesting UCLA/OU and UGA/Wake matchups instead.
Seedings turned out lame. Why pair up Georgia Ucla and Wake and Okla when they met last week<br />
I like those computer rankings though. #HottyToddy
and this is why we do not use computer rankings this early in the year. That would be nuts!
I doubt that Wake and Oklahoma meet since they just met a few days ago. I agree Ucla v Baylor match up as there is a natural rivalry. I think Usc will face Oklahoma.