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ITA Releases 4/25 Rankings, Analysis of NCAA Cut-Off (Premium)

by | Apr 25, 2017 | Blog | 0 comments

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The ITA released its latest team, singles, and doubles rankings today with the Wake Forest men and Florida women remaining in the top spots though Florida’s gap narrowed a good bit after its loss to Vanderbilt. TCU and UCLA entered the top five on the men’s side after TCU beat Baylor and Texas while UCLA defeated USC. Baylor’s losses to TCU and Texas Tech knocked them down two spots to No. 6, USC fell one spot to No. 7, and Oklahoma State fell three spots to No. 8 after losing to Oklahoma. Purdue made the biggest jump in the top 50 by coming up 19 spots to No. 35 after the Boilers went on the road and beat both Minnesota and Wisconsin. 

There wasn’t a ton of movement in the women’s top 10 with Stanford making the biggest climb by coming up two spots to No. 6 after defeating California while North Carolina and Georgia Tech fell two spots to No. 5 and No. 8. Georgia Tech came up short against Duke on Sunday while North Carolina’s drop was due to a few of its best wins dropping a point here and there. Clemson made the biggest jump in the top 50 by coming up eight spots to No. 39 after the Tigers defeated Boston College and Notre Dame. The women’s top 10 would have looked different had Auburn’s win over Georgia been keyed in before the Monday cut-off but it wasn’t so that result will go in for next week. 

These team rankings were comprised of each team’s nine best wins and all losses and it’ll stay at nine up through the selection of the NCAA field. If you want to get an early look at what next week’s rankings look like you can view my real-time rankings which are available to all College Tennis Today subscribers. As a note right now I am showing the first-run of next week’s rankings and will do the second run on Sunday after the completion of all matches. 

In the men’s singles rankings, TCU junior Cameron Norrie replaced Ohio State’s Mikael Torpegaard for the top spot. Norrie is 16-1 on the year with all but two of those wins coming over a ranked opponent. Wake Forest’s Christian Seraphim and Skander Mansouri remain at the top of the men’s doubles rankings with Georgia’s Robert Loeb and Jan Zielinski coming up one spot to No. 2. To see the full list of the men’s singles and doubles rankings click here. 

In the women’s singles rankings the top seven remains the same with Ohio State’s Francesca Di Lorenzo still at No. 1. North Carolina’s Hayley Carter and Jessie Aney remain at No. 1 in the women’s doubles rankings with Vanderbilt’s Astra Sharma and Emily Smith coming up one spot to No. 2. To see the full list of the women’s singles and doubles rankings click here.

 
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MEN’S TOP 50 – 4/25/17   WOMEN’S TOP 50 – 4/25/17
Rank Pts School Prv Rank Chg   Rank Pts School Prv Rank Chg
1 82.18 Wake Forest University 1 0   1 81.72 University of Florida 1 0
2 71.19 Ohio State University 2 0   2 74.58 Vanderbilt University 2 0
3 69.49 University of Virginia 3 0   3 69.71 University of Georgia 4 1
4 64.97 TCU 9 5   4 69.07 Ohio State University 5 1
5 63.30 UCLA 8 3   5 69.04 North Carolina 3 -2
6 61.94 Baylor University 4 -2   6 62.21 Stanford 8 2
7 61.44 USC 6 -1   7 60.38 Texas Tech University 7 0
8 60.11 Oklahoma State University 5 -3   8 59.50 Georgia Tech 6 -2
9 59.21 University of Texas 7 -2   9 54.76 Oklahoma State University 9 0
10 57.97 California 11 1   10 52.59 University of Michigan 10 0
11 56.92 Texas A&M University 10 -1   11 51.01 Pepperdine 13 2
12 54.69 North Carolina 12 0   12 50.99 Duke University 15 3
13 50.16 University of Georgia 13 0   13 50.59 Auburn University 12 -1
14 47.04 University of Florida 14 0   14 49.87 University of South Carolina 11 -3
15 45.63 University of Oklahoma 17 2   15 47.60 Baylor University 18 3
16 44.71 University of Michigan 16 0   16 46.62 California 16 0
17 41.74 Stanford University 15 -2   17 45.98 University of Kentucky 19 2
18 40.14 Mississippi State University 18 0   18 44.92 Mississippi State University 20 2
19 38.55 University of South Carolina 19 0   19 43.66 University of Arkansas 14 -5
20 37.16 Georgia Tech 20 0   20 42.79 Texas A&M University 17 -3
21 36.38 University of Oregon 22 1   21 38.55 LSU 21 0
22 35.40 University of South Florida 24 2   22 34.61 University of Tennessee 23 1
23 35.09 Northwestern University 21 -2   23 32.04 UCLA 22 -1
24 34.53 Columbia University 23 -1   24 32.02 University of Texas at Austin 25 1
25 32.02 University of Illinois 25 0   25 28.80 TCU 24 -1
26 31.27 Cornell University 26 0   26 27.99 Arizona State University 26 0
27 28.57 University of Kentucky 28 1   27 27.32 USC 32 5
28 27.96 University of Mississippi 29 1   28 25.74 University of Mississippi 29 1
29 27.37 Tulane University 27 -2   29 25.04 North Carolina State 28 -1
30 27.08 University of Central Florida 31 1   30 23.54 University of Washington 31 1
31 23.58 University of Wisconsin 30 -1   31 23.44 University of Kansas 27 -4
32 22.71 Florida State University 32 0   32 23.25 University of Miami (Florida) 39 7
33 22.55 University of Memphis 36 3   33 22.47 University of Notre Dame 33 0
34 21.69 Duke University 38 4   34 22.47 Wake Forest University 30 -4
35 20.74 Purdue University NR (54) 19   35 21.60 Rice University 37 2
36 20.34 Georgia State University 37 1   36 20.10 University of Tulsa 34 -2
37 20.23 SMU 35 -2   37 19.94 Northwestern University 36 -1
38 19.86 University of Minnesota 33 -5   38 19.14 University of Alabama 35 -3
39 19.74 University of Arkansas 34 -5   39 18.52 Clemson University 47 8
40 19.24 UC Santa Barbara 42 2   40 18.31 University of Oregon 40 0
41 19.13 Texas Tech University 45 4   41 18.05 Florida State University 42 1
42 18.36 Rice University 40 -2   42 18.05 University of Virginia 43 1
43 16.03 University of Louisville 39 -4   43 17.64 University of Oklahoma 38 -5
44 15.24 University of Notre Dame NR (51) 7   44 17.52 Dartmouth College 44 0
45 15.09 Utah State University 43 -2   45 17.07 University of Denver 45 0
46 14.90 University of Portland 50 4   46 16.51 Florida International (FIU) 41 -5
47 14.78 University of Tennessee 46 -1   47 14.54 University of Maryland NR (53) 6
48 14.76 University of Washington 41 -7   48 13.84 Harvard University 49 1
49 14.48 Vanderbilt University 48 -1   49 13.68 Wichita State University NR (51) 2
50 13.53 Cal Poly 44 -6   50 13.57 Cornell University NR (55) 5
Dropped out: South Alabama (47), Indiana (49)
  
Dropped out: Missouri (46), UCSB (48), William & Mary (50)
 
 

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Down below are the cut-off scores as of the 4/25 rankings. I do not anticipate the women’s cut-off going any higher than 42 though I could see it drop to 41 if Virginia were win a few at the ACC Tournament to move over the .500 mark. On the men’s side I could see the cut-off moving higher if the teams in the 43-45 range are conference champion which they could be if Utah State and Portland wins their respective conferences. It’s going to be an interesting next five days to see the results of these conference tournaments. 

NCAA at-large cut-off as of 4/25 rankings
Men – 44
Women – 42 
 
Highest Ranked Men’s Team Per Conference:
ACC: Wake Forest (1)
Big Ten: Ohio State (2)
Big 12: TCU (4)
Pac-12: UCLA (5)
SEC: Texas A&M (11)
American: South Florida (22) – AQ
Ivy League: Columbia (24) – AQ
Sun Belt: Georgia State (36) – AQ
Big West: UC Santa Barbara (40)
Conference USA: Rice (42) – AQ
Mountain West: Utah State (45)
West Coast: Portland (46)
 
Top 50 Teams With Losing Records:
#41 Texas Tech 11-14 (Big 12 Tourney – Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma/Texas/TCU)
#47 Tennessee 12-13 (SEC Tourney – Kentucky, Texas A&M)
#49 Vanderbilt 11-14 (SEC Tourney – Alabama, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas A&M)
 
Last Team In: #44 Notre Dame
First Team Out: #45 Utah State
Second Team Out: #46 Portland
Third Team Out: #48 Washington
 
Notes: So far all the mid-major top 50 teams have taken care of business in their conference tournaments which has helped keep the cut-off at a fairly low number of 44. UCSB, Utah State, and Portland will have a chance to keep that trend going this week though if they lose they might find themselves on the outside looking in. 
 
 
Men’s Top 16 Seeds (Regional Hosts):
 
Locks: Wake Forest, Ohio State, Virginia, TCU, UCLA, Baylor, USC, Oklahoma State, Texas, California, Texas A&M, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida
In at the moment: Oklahoma, Michigan, 
Need Ranked Wins: Stanford, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Georgia Tech
 
Remaining Schedules:
#15 Oklahoma (Big 12 Tourney – Texas, TCU)
#16 Michigan (Big Ten Tourney – Penn State/Iowa, Illinois/Purdue, Ohio State)
#17 Stanford (Pac-12 Tourney – Arizona, Oregon, UCLA)
#18 Mississippi State (SEC Tourney – Vanderbilt/Alabama, South Carolina, Texas A&M)
#19 South Carolina (SEC Tourney – Mississippi State, Texas A&M)
#20 Georgia Tech (ACC Tourney – Duke, Wake Forest)
 
Notes: Oklahoma’s win at Oklahoma State has the Sooners sitting pretty since they’ll only play top 10 teams in the conference tournament. Michigan needs to make the Big Ten final to maintain its spot while Stanford probably needs to make it to the Pac-12 finals to earn a top 16 seed. Everyone else needs to make their conference finals to make up the large gap between themselves and No. 16. 
 
 
Women’s NCAA Picture 
 
Highest Ranked Women’s Team Per Conference (Ranked In Top 50):
SEC: Florida (1) – though #2 Vanderbilt get is the AQ
Big Ten: Ohio State (3)
ACC: North Carolina (4)
Pac-12: Stanford (6)
Big 12: Texas Tech (7)
West Coast: Pepperdine (13)
Conference USA: Rice (35) – AQ
American: Tulsa (37) – will take at-large since it was upset by USF in the AAC Finals
Ivy League: Dartmouth (44) – AQ
Summit: Denver (45)
Missouri Valley: Wichita State (49)
 
 
Top 50 Teams With .500 records or losing records:
#38 Alabama 8-16 (Season Over)
#42 Virginia 11-12 (ACC Tourney – Florida State, North Carolina)
#50 Missouri 11-14 (Season Over)
 
Note: Clemson’s record actually shows as 11-11 in the ITA’s system since they never keyed in their 1/21/17 win over Charleston Southern. If they lose to Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament there is a chance they won’t make it even if they have the ranking due to that missing result. 
 
Last Team In: Florida State
First Team Out: Oklahoma
Second Team Out: Denver
Third Team Out: Florida International
 
Notes: The cut-off took a big drop this week due to a number of factors – both Miami and Clemson went above .500 (assuming Clemson gets its result in), Tulsa lost in the final of the AAC Tournament to South Florida so now Tulsa will take an at-large plus FIU, which beat South Florida earlier in the year, will get a pretty significant bump next week with South Florida going from 109 to 67 this week. Also Virginia which has a sub .500 record fell below the cut-off too. 
 
Women’s Top 16 Seeds (Regional Hosts):
 
Locks: Florida, Vanderbilt, Ohio State, North Carolina, Georgia, Stanford, Texas Tech, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, Michigan, Duke, Auburn, Pepperdine, South Carolina
Near Locks:: Baylor, Cal
 
Remaining Schedules:
#15 Baylor (Big 12 Tourney – at Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech)
#16 California (Pac-12 Tourney – Washington/Colorado winner, Arizona State/USC winner, Stanford)
#17 Kentucky (Regular season over)
#18 Mississippi State (Regular season over)
 
Notes: I think the only way that Baylor or Cal could fall out of the top 16 is if they took a bad loss in their conference tournament because the teams ranked 17 to 22 have already finished their seasons so they won’t have the chance to drastically improve their stocks. If Baylor beats Oklahoma in the Big 12 Tournament then they are a lock however if they lose then it could get interesting – also of note the Big 12 Tournament is being held in Norman so OU will have the home-court advantage. I don’t see Cal losing its opening round match at the Pac-12 Tourney and then in semis it’d face the winner of the Arizona State/USC match. Cal routed ASU 7-0 in the regular season and went 2-0 against USC though one of those matches was 4-3 – of course the 4-3 match was without Maegan Manasse in the singles lineup. 

 

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