Big Ten Men’s Weekend Preview

Tagged with: Big Ten

Upcoming is the last weekend of the Big 10 conference regular season. Familiar faces are at the top of the standings as teams jostle for positioning entering the Big 10 tournament as well as potential NCAA tournament selections. To the surprise of no one, Ohio State is one win away from wrapping up another Big 10 title (13^th straight). Illinois and Michigan have already locked up a bid to the NCAA tournament and are both in the drivers seat to host a regional by virtue of being a top 16 seed. Rounding out the top four is Minnesota, who is also a virtual lock to receive an at-large bid in to the NCAA tournament.

An important bit to note is the postponement and subsequent cancellation of the Michigan @ Minnesota match from last Sunday which will have ramifications not only on Michigan and Minnesota, but Indiana and Penn State moving forward. A bit more on this in the Match of the Weekend section. Minnesota is one of the tougher places to play in the Big 10, with a very vocal crowd supporting the Golden Gophers so it was no guarantee that Michigan would have won. A win at Minnesota would have likely given Michigan a higher seed (1 or 2 spots) in the NCAA Tournament bracket, but also bumped Indiana in to a top 4 seed and first round bye of the Big 10 tournament.

Speaking of Indiana, it is one of few Big 10 team on the NCAA tournament bubble. #46 Indiana, #49 Penn State, #53 Wisconsin, and #55 Iowa all have work to do to be on the correct side of the cutline, each with tasks of varying difficulty:

• Indiana is likely to receive a bid with a win over Ohio State (very unlikely) this Friday or win over Penn State this Sunday and a potential win over Minnesota in the 4-5 match up during the Big 10 tournament.
• Penn State will need to win @Purdue and @Indiana this Friday/Sunday as well as another win over a top four Big 10 team at the Big 10 tournament in order to likely receive a bid.
• Both Wisconsin and Iowa will require multiple wins over the top four Big 10 teams in the next two weeks in order to likely receive a bid.

Looking at the scenarios and calculations, it appears only Indiana has a realistic chance as the match with Penn State is at home and they have already beaten Minnesota this year already.

Nebraska, Michigan State, Purdue, and Northwestern, due to their overall record, are basically eliminated from NCAA Tournament unless they win the Big 10 tournament.

 

Match of the Weekend

#49 Penn State @ #46 Indiana, Sunday at Noon EDT

There will be three matches between top 50 teams, but only one will have as much impact on the two teams going forward. I expect the level of play to be higher in the Ohio State @ Indiana and Minnesota @ Illinois matches, but with there being a very slim chance of Jeremy Wurtzman pulling the upset over his former boss and coach, Ty Tucker, and both Illinois and Minnesota locking up NCAA at-large bids, all the drama will point to Bloomington this Sunday.

This is basically an elimination match for both Indiana and Penn State. The winner of this match will not only pick up a win over another top 50 teams, but also, most likely get the opportunity to play Minnesota in the Big 10 Tournament quarterfinals.

Why is this last part important? To begin, there are a few assumptions on this weekends matches that need to be made, all of which are likely to happen:

1. Ohio State over Indiana on Friday I can not imagine any scenario Ohio State loses this match, especially when a win would clinch the Big 10 title and the number 1 seed in the tournament (avoiding Michigan/Illinois until the finals).
2. Michigan wins out very likely as they have to play Iowa/Nebraska this weekend at home.
3. Northwestern does not win out very likely as they have to play Minnesota/Wisconsin this weekend. I could see them losing one, if not both matches.
4. Wisconsin does not win out very likely as they have to play @Illinois/@Northwestern this weekend. Again, the match with @Northwestern is basically a toss-up, but unlikely to beat @Illinois.
5. Minnesota splits its two matches very likely as they have to play @Northwestern/@Illinois this weekend. Minnesota should be favored against @Northwestern, but unlikely to be @Illinois.
6. Penn State winning @Purdue Jeff Zinns teams, over the years, have had some fantastic wins as well as some head-scratching losses over. Even though this assumption is least likely to happen of the six, I would still say Penn State is a 70/30 favorite.

With the previous six events happening, Minnesota will be 7-3 and the four seed in the tournament. With Penn States win Friday night, they move to 5-5 in conference play. With Indiana loss to Ohio State, Indiana will drop to 6-4. Neither Wisconsin nor Northwestern can crash the party as the best they can finish is 5-6.

Then, the winner of Penn State-Indiana match on Sunday would have an ITA calculated score of approximately 17-17.5, good enough for 42-44, which is right on the NCAA cutline, but not good enough to ensure of making the NCAA tournament. However, the winner of that match would also be the 5 seed in Big 10 Tournament.

A win over either Michigan State or Nebraska in the first round would set up a quarterfinal match with top 40 Minnesota. Minnesota is winnable match for either team as Indiana has already beaten them this season and Penn State is also more than capable of the spectacular. Getting a win over a top 40 team would be enough to push either team to 37-39 range, all be guaranteeing them a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Here is how they match up:

 

Projected Singles

  

Doubles Results

 

Common Opponents

 

Prediction

Indiana 4-1. Without studying too much in to the statistics and matchup, Indiana should win. Penn State is a team that struggles away from home with a record of 2-7. Even though one of those wins was at UCF, Indiana is on a roll lately and should be too talented at the bottom of the lineup.

 

Big 10 Standings

School	Conf. W-L	Overall W-L	ITA Ranking	Remaining Matches
Ohio State	9-0	24-2	3	@Indiana, @Purdue
Illinois	8-1	17-6	8	Wisconsin, Minnesota
Michigan	6-2	17-4	12	Iowa, Nebraska
Minnesota	6-2	13-6	35	@Northwestern, @Illinois
Indiana	6-3	13-10	46	Ohio State, Penn State
Northwestern	4-5	9-14	75	Minnesota, Wisconsin
Penn State	4-5	14-10	49	@Purdue, @Indiana
Wisconsin	4-5	12-10	53	@Illinois, @Northwestern
Iowa	3-6	14-13	55	@Michigan, @Michigan State
Purdue	2-7	10-14	92	Penn State, Ohio State
Michigan State	1-8	8-16	103	Nebraska, Iowa
Nebraska	0-9	9-12	115	@Michigan State, @Michigan

 

Weekend Schedule 

Friday, April 20^th

#3 Ohio State at #46 Indiana, 3:00 PM

#35 Minnesota at Northwestern, 3:30 PM

#49 Penn State at Purdue, 4:00 PM

Wisconsin at #8 Illinois, 4:00 PM

 

Saturday, April 21st

Iowa at #12 Michigan, 12:00 PM

Nebraska at Michigan State, 12:00 PM

 

Sunday, April 22nd

#49 Penn State at #46 Indiana, 12:00 PM

Iowa at Michigan State, 12:00 PM

Nebraska at #12 Michigan, 12:00 PM

#3 Ohio State at Purdue, 12:00 PM

Wisconsin at #49 Northwestern, 1:00 PM

#35 Minnesota at #8 Illinois, 1:00 PM

Chicago State at Purdue, 5:00 PM

Non-conference matches in italics

All times are in Eastern

 

Projected Line-Ups

Ohio State
Position	ITA Rnk	Player	UTR
1	4	Mikael Torpegaard	14.75
2	36	JJ Wolf	14.43
3	104	John McNally	14.03
4		Tim Seibert	13.68
5	82	Kyle Seelig	13.79
6	99	Martin Joyce	13.96
7		Alex Kobelt	13.24
8		Hunter Tubert	13.15

 

Illinois
Position	ITA Rnk	Player	UTR
1	17	Aleks Vukic	14.73
2		Aron Hiltzik	13.91
3	73	Alex Brown	13.71
4		Zeke Clark	13.86
5		Aleks Kovacevic	14.16
6		Caleb Chakravarthi	13.34
7		Noe Khlif	13.48
8		Vuk Budic	12.48

 

Michigan
Position	ITA Rnk	Player	UTR
1	12	Alex Knight	14.25
2	44	Runhao Hua	14.17
3		Mattias Siimar	13.90
4		Myles Schalet	13.42
5		Carter Lin	13.65
6		Davis Crocker	13.10
7		Connor Johnston	13.28
8		Kristofer Siimar	13.01

 

Minnesota
Position	ITA Rnk	Player	UTR
1	95	Felix Corwin	14.20
2	89	Matic Spec	13.90
3	85	Stefan Milicevic	13.83
4		Josip Krstanovic	13.41
5		Jackson Allen	13.22
6		Eli Ogilvy	12.83
7		Vlad Lobak	12.64
8		Marino Alpeza	12.58

 

Indiana
Position	ITA Rnk	Player	UTR
1	121	Raheel Manji	13.84
2		Antonio Cembellin	13.54
3		Keivon Tabrizi	13.55
4		Bennett Crane	13.20
5		Zac Brodney	13.28
6		Andrew Redding	13.06
7		Brandon Lam	13.01
8		Afonso Salgado	13.12

 

Northwestern
Position	ITA Rnk	Player	UTR
1	122	Dominik Stary	13.33
2		Nick Brookes	13.44
3		Ben Vandixhorn	13.11
4		Antonioni Fasano	13.10
5		Jason Seidman	13.09
6		Chris Ephron	13.18
7		AJ Joshi	12.47
8		Michael Lorenzini	12.64

 

Penn State
Position	ITA Rnk	Player	UTR
1		Constant De La Bassetiere	13.67
2		Christian Lakoseljac	13.65
3		Christos Antonopoulos	13.22
4		Gabriel Nemeth	13.03
5		Ben Lieb	12.58
6		Alp Sentay	12.55
7		Zach Lieb	12.39
8		Matt Galush	12.56

  

Wisconsin
Position	ITA Rnk	Player	UTR
1		Daniel Soyfer	13.47
2	120	Josef Dodridge	13.39
3		Lamar Remy	12.81
4		Chema Carranza	13.54
5		Osgar OHoisin	13.26
6		Robert Krill	12.60
7		Jesper Freimuth	12.96
8		Chase Colton	12.88

 

Iowa
Position	ITA Rnk	Player	UTR
1		Josh Silverstein	12.83
2		Piotr Smietana	12.85
3		Joe Tyler	12.98
4		Kareem Allaf	13.44
5		Will Davies	13.12
6		Jonas Larsen	12.72
7		Jake Jacoby	12.58
8		Jason Kerst	12.34

 

Purdue
Position	ITA Rnk	Player	UTR
1	111	Gergely Madarasz	13.69
2		Maksymilian Raupuk	12.70
3		Mateo Julio	12.86
4		Stephan Koenigsfest	12.98
5		Athell Bennett	13.30
6		Javier Rodriguez	12.35
7		Dominik Sochureck	12.03
8		Ali Mooraj	12.13

 

Michigan State
Position	ITA Rnk	Player	UTR
1		Brett Forman	12.97
2		Josh Mukherjee	12.85
3		Michael Dube	12.96
4		Jasper Koenen	12.24
5		Davis Wong	12.83
6		John Carlin	12.20
7		Billy Shisler	12.29
8		Jack Winkler	12.20

 

Nebraska
Position	ITA Rnk	Player	UTR
1		Toby Boyer	13.60
2		Linus Erhart	13.31
3		Dylan Bednarczyk	13.07
4		Micah Klousia	12.64
5		William Grattan-Smith	12.58
6		Chris Dean	12.49
7		Rob Krizaj	10.96
8		Isaac Nortey	12.60

  

Upcoming

Big 10 Conference Tournament

Big Ten mens tennis championship will be hosted by the University of Iowa in Iowa City, IA. Play starts Thursday, April 27^th with first round matches. The top four seeds all receive a bye in to the quarterfinals which begin Friday, April 28^th. The quarterfinal winners will advance to the semifinals on Saturday, April 29^th with the championship finals on Sunday, April 30^th.