With all the regular season conference play winding down it’s that time of year where teams gear up for conference tournaments (except the Ivy League, those smart guys sit back and watch… wait it’s better to play more to have a chance to improve your ranking right? not sure who the smart one’s are here). At the same time everyone is gearing up for conference tournaments all the teams that have a legitimate shot at hosting start looking at the rankings trying to figure out if they have a shot of making the top 16 to host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. So of course you are wondering, how’s it look for my team? Well, ask no more. Below you’ll find the outlook for each team and as events occur that change the outlook I’ll update the post and put an update date on it. So without further ado…
In/Out of watch since last update
Memphis
With the loss to South Florida in the AAC semifinal, the little hope Memphis was clinging to is gone and they’ll be a 2 seed somewhere.
Duke
Duke’s loss to Miami has pretty much taken them out of contention. It’ not impossible but is asking a bit much to beat FSU and a huge run in the ACC Tourney.
The Locks (10)
Not going to say much about these teams as they should be near impossible to knock out of a hosting position.
Wake Forest
UCLA
Ohio State
Stanford
Texas A&M
North Carolina
Mississippi State
Illinois
TCU
Florida
The Probables (4)
Florida State
Remaining: Duke (4/22), ACC Tournament (4/25-29)
A loss to Duke might sting a little. Beat Duke and FSU looks very good heading into the ACC Tournament.
Michigan
Remaining: Nebraska (4/22), Big Ten Tournament (4/27-29)
Nebraska will not help Michigan’s point total. That means Michigan’s only chances to improve it’s point total are going to be in the Big Ten Tournament which makes them a little susceptible but at #12 a lot of teams would have to pass them.
USC
Remaining: Pac-12 Tournament (4/25-28)
Just avoid a bad loss and the Trojans are looking good.
Oklahoma
Remaining: Big 12 Tournament
With the big Bedlam win over Oklahoma State today they are now in a solid hosting spot.
Bubble Teams (3)
It looks to be a 3 team race for 2 spots right now. Columbia has no conference tournament so Texas and Oklahome State will know what they need to do to get around Columbia.
Columbia
Remaining: at Yale (4/22), at Cornell (4/28)
Columbia got a big lift with the Texas Tech win over Texas. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State swapped spots on either side of Columbia today but they are holding string at 15. It would appear that the Big 12 Tourney will be the place where Columbia’s host changes may get made or broken. They still have to worry about a big run from the pack of SEC team behind as well.
Texas
Remaining: at Baylor (4/22), Big 12 Tournament (4/27-29)
The Longhorns hosting chance took a devastating blow with the loss to Texas Tech but they still have plenty of chances to get it back. A win at Baylor would move them back into a good position and then the Big 12 Tournament still to come where all wins are good points.
Oklahoma State
Remaining: Big 12 Tournament (4/27-29)
Oklahoma State is currently in a host spot but they are a in serious trouble. Julian Cash, their #1 player, is now officially done. They lost a heartbreaker to Oklahoma today after leading 3-0. With Texas lurking right behind them they probably need at least on win in the Big 12 Tournament or they will find themselves as a 2 seed on the road.
Clinging to Hope (5)
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Georgia
Remaining: SEC Tournament (4/25-29)
For a team that was in a freefall for a bit, Georgia stopped that bleeding in a big way this weekend with wins over Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Now the chance to host lies squarely on their shoulders. Unlike Memphis who can do nothing but hope lots of teams collapse, Georgia knows what they need to do. They must beat Arkansas in their first match at the SEC Tournament and top seeded Texas A&M in their second match. That would put them in the finals of the SEC Tournament and right on the bubble. If they manage to do that we’ll revisit whether they need to win the final or not but getting there is a must. The story is pretty much the same for all three of these SEC schools, get to the finals of the SEC Tournament and you have a shot, and depending on what the other schools do you may or may not need to win the final.
Kentucky
Remaining: SEC Tournament (4/25-29)
Kentucky is separated from the other three SEC schools above as they can’t host simply by making the finals of the SEC Tournament, they must win it. The two losses this weekend to Tennessee and Georgia put them in that position and given they lost to the 4 and 8 seeds it would seem rather unlikely that they can make a run and win the tournament, especially given their road record. The Wildcats definitely excel in the confines of their indoor facility so they may need some help from the weatherman to force things indoors in Tuscaloosa to have a chance.
Baylor
Remaining: vs. Texas (4/22), Big 12 Tournament (4/27-29)
Baylor missed one chance for a big road win at TCU and they have one left at Texas prior to the Big 12 conference tournament. If they don’t beat Texas tomorrow they’re off the list.
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