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Virginia stays at No. 1 after a big win on Friday over Wake Forest while UCLA surges up to No. 2 after its road win at USC.  North Carolina comes up to No. 3 after squeezing past Georgia Tech, TCU drops two spots down to No. 4 despite winning at Texas, and Ohio State drops two spots to No. 5 despite road wins over Minnesota and Wisconsin.

There were some teams that improved their chances of qualifying for the NCAAs while there were others that really hurt themselves with some untimely losses. It’s also going to be a battle to see who finishes in the top 16 and thus gets to host a NCAA regional.

Weekend Winners:
Vanderbilt – some clutch, clutch play from the Commodores who won on the road at Mississippi State and Alabama
Oregon – picked up a big road win at Washington
Oklahoma State – was in danger of falling out of the top 16 but wins over Texas Tech and Baylor all but nailed down a host spot for the Cowboys
Notre Dame – won on the road and now its chances of getting an at-large are looking much better

Weekend Losers:
Arkansas – was in prime position to host a NCAA regional but a stunning loss at home knocked them all the way down to #18
NC State – lost at home to Notre Dame in a match that it really needed – still in contention for an at-large but will need to win at least one if not two matches at the ACC Tournament.
Wisconsin – lost at home to Penn State in a match that the Badgers really needed – will have to pull off an upset to have a reasonable chance of moving back up
Washington – had a chance to lock up an at-large spot but lost at home to Oregon – still would be in as of today but now nearing the bubble.
Alabama – had a chance to lock up an at-large spot but lost at home to Vanderbilt – firmly on the bubble now
Tulane – lost a tough one at Rice which means it’ll be a No. 4 seed in the conference tournament – Tulane was a long shot to get into the top 16 but now it’ll have to navigate these matches to win the conference tournament – Memphis (host), South Florida, SMU/Tulsa.

Penn State – picked up a nice road win at Wisconsin but then fell flat on its face and got stunned at Minnesota – as of this minute they’d still be in the field.

In the past the NCAA at-large cutoff has been right around 42 so for those teams in that 36-46 range they need to keep winning plus they have to hope there are no upsets in a few conference tournaments. Bubble teams will be rooting for San Diego to win the WCC, Rice to win the CUSA, and USF/Tulsa/SMU/Tulane to win the AAC. If one of those teams doesn’t win the conference tournament then another at-large spot will probably be out the window which would lower the cut-off.

This set of rankings used each team’s nine best wins as will all the subsequent rankings up until the selection of the NCAA field on May 3.  Each of the teams in the projected top 20 had all nine countable wins over ranked opponents. Schools that have an * beside the school name have less than nine ranked wins so I had to do some guesswork on where the unranked wins fall in the rankings.

LSU and Vanderbilt had the same round point totals but when taking further out LSU had the slight edge – same for Alabama and Baylor.

There are still some teams that haven’t keyed in results from the weekend so I’m assuming they will – otherwise these numbers could change – nudge to Illinois and Texas A&M.

Cal stays at No. 1 but its gap has shrunk from 7.53 to 3.59 after losing to Stanford on Saturday. North Carolina stays at No. 2, Florida moves up to No. 3 after winning on the road at Georgia, Georgia falls one spot to No. 4, Vanderbilt moves up one spot to No. 5, and Ohio State falls one spot to No. 6. The only other changed in the top 10 was Pepperdine and Michigan swapping spots at No. 9 and No. 10.

Weekend Winners:
Stanford – win over No. 1 California all but locked up a spot in the top 16 which means the Cardinal will host a NCAA regional
Oklahoma State – wins over Texas Tech and TCU should be enough to keep them in the top 16
Georgia Tech – big win over Duke pushed the Jackets up another spot and put them that much closer to hosting a regional
USC – beat rival UCLA plus they’ll have a chance to win the Pac-12 win they play Stanford on Wednesday in Ojai. A win over Stanford might be enough to push the Trojans into the top 16.
Princeton – wins over Cornell and Columbia pushed the Tigers from No. 50 to inside the top 40 which puts them in good shape to get in as an at-large

Weekend Losers:
Texas Tech – loss to Oklahoma State and fell three spots to No. 17. Red Raiders only have one win over a top 25 opponent so to move back up they’ll need to beat someone of substance.
Oregon – losses to Long Beach State and Loyola Marymount will likely end the season for the Ducks – were sitting at No. 44 but will drop to around No. 54.

There were some home/road keying errors that are being corrected and I noticed that the UNC women still haven’t keyed in its win over Clemson – would slightly effect points total but not positioning.

4/19/16 Men’s Ranking Projections

Rank School Points Previous
1 Virginia 74.16 1
2 UCLA 70.57 4
3 North Carolina 69.96 5
4 TCU 69.44 2
5 Ohio State 66.53 3
6 Georgia 65.82 6
7 Wake Forest 59.02 7
8 USC 54.53 9
9 Texas Tech 53.89 10
10 Oklahoma 52.31 8
11 Florida 51.88 13
12 Oklahoma State 51.65 14
13 Texas A&M 48.83 11
14 Northwestern 47.94 15
15 California 46.45 16
16 Illinois 46.00 17
17 South Florida 43.45 19
18 Arkansas 42.74 12
19 Texas 40.66 18
20 Kentucky 39.69 20
21 Florida State 36.56 22
22 Michigan 33.82 21
23 Tulsa* 33.54 24
24 Columbia* 32.20 25
25 Mississippi State* 31.79 23
26 Rice* 30.00 26
27 SMU* 28.48 27
28 San Diego 26.65 31
29 Ole Miss* 26.15 32
30 Georgia Tech* 25.54 30
31 Tulane* 25.50 28
32 Stanford* 25.06 29
33 LSU* 23.26 33
34 Vanderbilt* 23.26 45
35 Oregon 22.91 41
36 Virginia Tech* 21.77 40
37 Washington* 20.95 35
38 Penn State* 20.65 39
39 Dartmouth* 20.45 36
40 Notre Dame* 20.24 43
41 Memphis* 20.23 38
42 Alabama* 20.16 34
43 Baylor* 20.16 37
44 NC State* 17.86 42
45 Old Dominion* 16.91 44
46 Drake* 15.66 49
47 UC Santa Barbara* 15.33 50
48 Princeton* 14.71 46
49 Denver* 14.53 51
50 Harvard* 14.44 48
51 South Carolina* 14.36 58
52 Cornell* 14.30 55
53 Wisconsin* 13.36 47
54 Lamar* 12.19 54
55 East Tennessee State* 11.61 52

* indicates at least one win over an opponent ranked outside the top 75

Rankings Chart That Excludes All Losses

Rank School 9 Best Wins
1 North Carolina 734.60
2 Virginia 711.90
3 TCU 659.70
4 UCLA 649.20
5 Wake Forest 631.50
6 Ohio State 618.70
7 Georgia 618.70
8 USC 556.20
9 Oklahoma State 552.70
10 Texas Tech 549.70

4/19/16 Women’s Ranking Projections


  1. 181

    Thank you Bobby for noting that both you and the NCAA committees recognize that the rankings are sometimes flawed, such as the current ranking with the OSU women behind Vandy despite their two wins over Vandy. Maybe the NCAA should reexamine how they make their rankings instead of holding a committe when obvious flaws show up. Varied teams with many various records make precise delineations problematic, eg NC beats Virginia twice then loses to Notre Dame sitting out their top player. If it is apparent that there are flaws in the rankings then how clear is the line between teams 13-16 who with the present format "host" the first two rounds, and teams 17-20 who have to play on the road. The ranking system itself recognizes that home field is a significant advantage by awarding extra points when teams win on the road. Everybody knows that home courts are a HUGE advantage in college tennis.<br /><br />The day the NCAA tennis tournament starts there will be 512 chair umpires sitting up in chairs trying to ensure Fairness during 64 men's and women's matches, in two tournaments with very skewed formats that favor the teams that were able to finish ranked in the top 16. How does a team in an average conference that has a great year ever have a chance? <br /><br />It wouldn't be hard to play arrange team matches at neutral sites or to allow the lowest seed the right to host the first two rounds instead of the top seed as it is done now. A tournament is supposed to create a level playing field so that the cream can rise. A True Champion would never covet an unfair advantage.<br /><br />The playoffs of all pro sports tries to neutralize the advantage of home field, the Super Bowl and college bowl games are played at neutral sites. NCAA tennis could improve their format very simply.<br /><br />Thanks very much for providing a forum for open discussion.

  2. 181

    Who wants to play a bowl game in front of 3 people?

  3. 181

    Bowl games Bobby

  4. 181

    Earning the right to host is a big part of American sports. Beyond the college examples listed how about the NFL, NBA, MLB, MSL. Teams are rewarded for great regular seasons.

  5. 181

    Outside of D1 men's basketball most other sports including D1 women's basketball play the early rounds on the campuses of the higher ranked schools – I'm not sure if they go strictly off rankings or geography. I know college baseball has the top 8 host regionals and super-regionals. Playing at neutral sites may be more fair but the crowds would be minuscule and that'd take away from the student-athlete experience – ITA/NCAA buzzword. <br /><br />I'd be very surprised if college tennis didn't mirror the college baseball format in the next 3-4 years (if not sooner). There is a big push to get the quarters/semis/finals on a weekend and the best way to do so would be to play the first three rounds on campus and then have the final 8 at one site.

  6. 181

    The NCAA selection committee make adjustments in situation like that and they would move Ohio State ahead of Vandy if they were still ranked in the same order after the final rankings.

  7. 181

    how are you going to get fans at neutral environments in the 1st 2 rounds? Having them at host sites guarantees good crowds. Plus its a reward for having a good season.

  8. 181

    Doesn't anyone see that allowing the top sixteen teams to "host" the first two rounds is a strange way to run a "tournament." Next year Georgia could play EVERY ROUND of the tournament on their home courts. Imagine the uproar if something like that was even proposed for the basketball tournament. When if ever will the ITA fix that problem?

  9. 181

    OSU women beat Vandy twice and end up ranked behind them. That's not just weird that indicates a real problem with the system being used to "create," the rankings. I guess no penalty for losing.

  10. 181

    Not really anyone below 20 – I think if South Florida wins the AAC they might move up enough and same for Texas and Arkansas though both Arky and Texas are long shots

  11. 181

    Last week Cal incorrectly got a road bonus for a home win over Washington – I let the ITA know and they fixed it for this week – but I forgot to fix my sheet so that was the difference. Normally I wouldn't have changed my sheet but I was trying to figure out where the variance was last week and I forgot to switch it back.

  12. 181

    You had Cal at 15 but they came in at 16 this week, whats the discrepancy?

  13. 181

    Is there anyone outside the top 20ish you think could host if they were to win their conference tournament?

  14. 181

    No – all that in the top 50 are good.

  15. 181

    2nd sentence should be "TCU drops two spots down to No. 4"

  16. 181

    are any teams in the top 40 in danger of missing because of the .500 record thing?


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